AWUS01 KWNH 141428  
  FFGMPD  
  AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-142025-  
    
  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049  
  NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD  
  1026 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026  
    
  Areas affected...Northern AZ...Southern UT...Far Southern NV  
    
  Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible  
    
  Valid 141425Z - 142025Z  
    
  SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms tracking over areas with saturated  
  and sensitive soils could lead to areas of flash flooding.  
    
  DISCUSSION...GOES West shows a strong subtropical jet oriented  
  SSW-NNE over the Lower CO River Valley this morning. The 12Z VEF  
  sounding showed 250mb winds of 80 kts, which is above the 90th  
  climatological percentile and right around the max moving average  
  for mid-August. The jet streak overhead is providing excellent  
  diffluence overhead while the atmosphere remains weakly capped and  
  fairly saturated. Storms developed over the Grand Canyon County,  
  the northern tier of the Mogollon Rim, and as far south just east  
  of Lake Havasu. Storm motions should be progressive, although near  
  uniform SSWrly flow aloft is also contributing to upshear Corfidi  
  vectors that are around 10 kts. Some backbuilding and training  
  could occur as a result, particularly in areas where higher  
  terrain is orthogonal to the SSWrly flow within the 850-300mb  
  layer.  
    
  PWs are forecast to range between 1.0-1.25" in the highlighted  
  area, and MLCAPE should rise up to ~1,000 J/kg over the Lower CO  
  River Valley by this afternoon. With the presence of the jet  
  streak aloft fostering upper-level ascent, unusually high vertical  
  wind shear paired with above normal moisture will support hourly  
  rainfall rates that could surpass 1.5"/hr in the more intense  
  storms. Localized rainfall totals over 3" could occur, especially  
  in areas where training thunderstorms unfold. Soils remains  
  unusually saturated for much of the at-risk area as well with NASA  
  SPoRT-LIS showing >90th climatological percentile soil saturation  
  within the 0-10cm layer. Flash flooding is possible today with  
  those areas sporting saturated soils, as well as in areas with  
  rugged terrain, slot canyons, and dry washes.  
    
  Mullinax  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!9ZJwEaYh4Xqizxf6_0Hamf4d0kqU7xYXNSTf  
  Iu4RwFCM47bDHc1UNboqkD3oxT6UKeWZSy_H9t27W9L8c0Pbwhk5ewU$  for graphic  
  product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...  
    
  ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...  
    
  LAT...LON   38891286 38841171 38321113 37331088 36361100  
              35621094 34791141 34391235 34401355 34361396  
              34431423 34691436 34991453 35261464 35711468  
              36591460 37511426 38391377  
    
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