ACUS11 KWNS 142202  
  SWOMCD  
  SPC MCD 142202  
  VAZ000-NCZ000-150000-  
    
  Mesoscale Discussion 1982  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  
  0502 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026  
    
  Areas affected...northern Virginia into north-central North Carolina  
    
  Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely  
    
  Valid 142202Z - 150000Z  
    
  Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent  
    
  SUMMARY...Continued risk for damaging wind may continue through the  
  late afternoon/early evening.  
    
  DISCUSSION...Mixed mode thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and  
  south of a surface boundary across portions of Virginia this  
  afternoon. A cluster has developed across south-central Virginia and  
  is moving southeastward. The environment downstream of this cluster  
  is moderately to strongly unstable. Daytime heating has allowed  
  temperatures to rise into the mid 90s, with steepening low-level  
  lapse rates. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent but it  
  is possible that with cold pool organization, the damaging wind  
  potential may increase as this line shifts southeastward into the  
  favorable environment.  
    
  Closer to the northern boundary within the more favorable deep layer  
  shear, a supercell is moving south east across north-central  
  Virginia. While deep layer shear is sufficient, low level flow is  
  fairly week. This will likely keep the main threats to large hail  
  and damaging wind. Watch issuance is being considered soon.  
    
  ..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/14/2026  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6Vxre3ygSbqEGP-cPrqT1vvZR8MJyFoomfAZ  
  0EEys1de8opsf1Q9Rn_F1WoXGYdz2YinCn4WhQF5oytgEmU5-oSY4dM$  for graphic  
  product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...  
    
  LAT...LON   37277960 37777917 38097884 38217845 38167791 37907735  
              37517707 37047713 36617739 36287838 36327889 36657958  
              37277960  
    
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN  
    
    
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   * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)