AWUS01 KWNH 160051  
  FFGMPD  
  KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-160649-  
    
  Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063  
  NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD  
  850 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026  
    
  Areas affected...much of Kansas and far eastern Colorado  
    
  Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible  
    
  Valid 160049Z - 160649Z  
    
  Summary...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are  
  expected through 06Z/1a central.  
    
  Discussion...A couple of convective clusters were expanding  
  gradually toward western Kansas over the past hour.  One was  
  located over far southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas, where  
  multiple merging cells have fostered spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain  
  rates (per MRMS) and another, more linearly oriented cluster from  
  near Sterling south-southwest through Limon to near Pueblo.  The  
  cells were making steady eastward progress toward increasing PW  
  (1.25-1.8), strong instability (around 3000 J/kg MLCAPE across  
  west-central KS), and low-level easterly flow, providing very  
  subtle low-level shear to aid in cell/MCS maintenance.  These  
  clusters have resulted in several areas of reported flash flood  
  impacts and MRMS Flash responses - particularly across central  
  Colorado.  Given the increasingly favorable thermodynamic  
  environment and expectation that several mergers will accompany  
  the clusters as they migrate eastward through Kansas, flash flood  
  potential is likely to continue through the night.  FFG thresholds  
  only marginally improve with eastward extent into Kansas and  
  remain close to 1-1.5 inch/hr from west-central into north-central  
  KS and points northwestward.  These thresholds will be exceeded  
  occasionally as cells move through the discussion area through  
  06Z/1a central.  
    
  Cook  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4Cm-QsVHwZtapGGu3-JgqCsTyJ4VGeUx1jV4  
  ddkKqq3vXYwZG3zm1RFqP25N7hG47dsbpNEbNZwo1treAYaDizmEBYQ$  for graphic  
  product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...PUB...TOP...  
    
  ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...  
    
  LAT...LON   40640301 40230149 40059919 39919784 38969738  
              37959808 37270013 37110217 37770380 38660416  
              40430374  
    
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