ACUS11 KWNS 151725  
  SWOMCD  
  SPC MCD 151725  
  NCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-SCZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-152000-  
    
  Mesoscale Discussion 1986  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  
  1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026  
    
  Areas affected...Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge...including  
  the Great Smoky Mountains  
    
  Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely  
    
  Valid 151725Z - 152000Z  
    
  Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent  
    
  SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of locally damaging winds appear  
  possible with the strongest storms this afternoon. The areal  
  coverage of the threat is expected to remain too limited to warrant  
  a watch issuance.  
    
  DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery indicate a gradual  
  increase in thunderstorm activity early this afternoon from the  
  Cumberland Plateau into the Blue Ridge, including the Great Smoky  
  Mountains. In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, it  
  appears daytime heating of a moist and moderately to strongly  
  unstable air mass (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg - per latest objective  
  analysis) is contributing to this development. Regional VWPs  
  indicate rather weak vertical shear, which should limit the degree  
  of storm organization with pulse-type storm modes expected.  
  Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of locally damaging winds appear  
  possible with the strongest storms, owing to the potential for  
  effective water loading of convective downdrafts.  
    
  ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4OjRjwvja8h_iPC8EUztePZ5-taseoZXohBpWO-  
  KCmS98ny9WHYCtlHaUchBZD27pQIE512s57-FDCVykz1pjT7PYwo$  for graphic  
  product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...  
    
  LAT...LON   35628489 36668420 37718390 38148331 37088146 36838099  
              36298083 35358187 34588318 34278430 34808474 35628489  
    
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
    
    
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