ACUS11 KWNS 152056  
  SWOMCD  
  SPC MCD 152056  
  OHZ000-INZ000-152300-  
    
  Mesoscale Discussion 1990  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  
  0356 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026  
    
  Areas affected...portions of far eastern Indiana into far western  
  Ohio  
    
  Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible  
    
  Valid 152056Z - 152300Z  
    
  Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent  
    
  SUMMARY...A conditional risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and  
  perhaps a brief tornado exists across portions of far eastern  
  Indiana into western Ohio. The need for a watch remains unclear.  
    
  DISCUSSION...Filtered diurnal heating downstream of an MCV readily  
  apparent in observation data has allowed surface temperatures to  
  warm into the low 80s F across portions of eastern IN/western OH,  
  with latest objective analysis depicting around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE  
  across this area. While some inhibition remains, deepening cumulus  
  are noted in some areas of clearer skies. Recent CAM guidance  
  continues to suggest that isolated thunderstorm development may  
  occur in the next 1-3 hours across this region as ascent downstream  
  of the approaching MCV continues to overspread the region. Should  
  this occur, enhanced mid-level flow (sampled by the IND VWP) would  
  be sufficient to support at least transient supercell structures  
  should storms develop. In this scenario, poor low- and mid-level  
  lapse rates would likely temper overall convective intensity, but  
  modestly enhanced low-level shear and backing low-level flow  
  (sampled by the ILN VWP) may support a conditional risk for isolated  
  damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. This scenario  
  remains uncertain, but trends will continue to be monitored for  
  potential watch issuance.  
    
  ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/15/2026  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-Yr5AwLH9WfTZ4m2yVt8lB7OU5yVZJZs6fJPrflSOG-  
  O64YLwkWUgznXzQFgqesOGQi9UY3BKQzATQ8n4ji2AJfBbe8$  for graphic product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...  
    
  LAT...LON   41148467 41088390 40678314 40258296 39838314 39648352  
              39648428 39888474 40288492 40888495 41148467  
    
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH  
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
    
    
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