ACUS11 KWNS 152102  
  SWOMCD  
  SPC MCD 152102  
  ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-152300-  
    
  Mesoscale Discussion 1991  
  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK  
  0402 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026  
    
  Areas affected...south-central and southeast IA...north-central and  
  northeast Missouri...and west-central Illinois  
    
  Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible  
    
  Valid 152102Z - 152300Z  
    
  Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent  
    
  SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe weather may  
  increase across the area late this afternoon into evening.  
  Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch.  
    
  DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed along the IA-MO  
  border, near Centerville, IA along a residual outflow boundary that  
  extends into west-central IL. A very moist boundary-layer exists in  
  the vicinity of the surface front with dewpoints into the mid 70s to  
  lower 80s, which are contributing to MLCAPE of 3000-3500+ J/kg, per  
  latest objective analysis. Forcing associated with a remnant MCV may  
  be contributing to the storm development with the current EAX VWP  
  indicating 30-35 kt of westerly flow in the mid levels, suggestive  
  of at least modest vertical shear. As such, some potential for  
  isolated severe weather appears to exist, mainly in the form of  
  locally damaging wind gusts, should sustained storms persist late  
  this afternoon into evening.  
    
  ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/15/2026  
    
  ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.  
  gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Nq6rbA82prwTCf87ts1w79qn_OR98rSRdsQ  
  5g8fqG9aEtKO_n8QrMJrh_xf4zfVRWwRcGvup-3tPXW64peeAPU1ZCc$  for graphic  
  product...  
    
  ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...  
    
  LAT...LON   40419332 41019328 41159192 40829093 40359086 39969106  
              39899165 40189293 40419332  
    
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
  MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN  
    
    
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