			Foreign Correspondent

		      Inside Track On World News
	    By International Syndicated Columnist & Broadcaster
		 Eric Margolis <emargolis@lglobal.com>

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CHINA RISKS AN OCEAN STORM IN THE STRAIT OF TAIWAN
by
Eric Margolis 18 March 1996


Will China invade Taiwan?  Ongoing Chinese military
exercises in the narrow Taiwan Strait, and the launching of
M-9 missiles off Taiwan's two main ports, have produced
fears of a general war in the region not seen since the
early 1950's..

This column believes what we are seeing - so far - is: 1.
traditional Chinese shadow-boxing designed to intimidate
pro-independence forces in Taiwan's March 23rd elections; 2.
A function of the increasingly fierce power struggle in
Beijing, underway since late 1994; and 3.Efforts by the
Kumintang Nationalists to make the communist regime  in
Beijing loose face by making pro-independence noises.  

At a timer when Beijing's authority over China is
slipping, and centrifugal forces are again emerging,
any move by Taiwan to assert independence threatens
China's national integrity. Booming South China,
where Taiwan has invested over $22 billion, appears
most likely to slip Beijing's leash, drawn away
from communist control by the twin economic poles
of Taiwan and Singapore.

China, in spite of its numerically vast military forces,
lacks the capability to mount a successful amphibious
invasion of Taiwan, or to dependably supply and reinforce
its troops once ashore.   China's People's Liberation Army 
faces the same problem before the 200 km wide Taiwan Strait
that the Wehrmacht had with the British Channel.

To invade Taiwan, China must establish air and naval
superiority over and around the fortress island.  China's
South Sea Fleet, with scores of destroyers, frigates and
hundreds of torpedo craft, is big in numbers, but its ships
are small, poorly armed and lack in air defense.  Save for
one nuclear Han boat and one Kilo-class, China's 50
submarines are old, loud, slow,  and easily detected.  

Taiwan's navy of 38 surface combatants is somewhat more
modern, with better AA and anti-ship missiles, modern
electronics,  and far superior command and control. Taiwan 
has four subs, two of them modern Dutch boats. .  The
Taiwanese Navy could inflict heavy losses on any Chinese
invasion armada.

China has 4,970 combat aircraft.  It could deploy at least
1,200 against Taiwan. But they are 50's or 60's vintage
copies or modifications of Soviet MiG-17's, 19's or 21's.
and lumbering TU-16 bombers. China's only modern warplanes 
are 22 Sukhoi-27's, bought recently from Russia. 

Taiwan's air force is small and old: 275 feeble F-5's and 50
unsafe F-104's.  Modern F-16's on order from the US won't
arrive until 2000.  Taiwanese pilots have the advantage of
fighting from close to their bases, better training,
superior command and control, and US Sidewinder-J series and
Israeli Shafrir air-to-air missiles superior to China's
versions.

China's obsolescent strike aircraft have short range,  very
limited warloads,  and would have no loiter time over 
Taiwan. Chinese air bases cannot sustain  high-intensity
operations. Chances that China could seize Taiwanese
airfields in a coup de main and establish air bridges to
ferry in troops by transport aircraft are extremely slim. 

China's Navy has only 54 LST-type amphibious craft, capable
of landing only one brigade. Its initial 6-division invasion
force would have to be moved by barge, freighters, small
craft and junks. Taiwanese aircraft would  strike Chinese
embarkation ports, notably Fuchow and Swatow.

Even if Chinese troops do manage to land, they would face 
extensive concrete fortifications covering all beaches,
minefields, and thick belts of wire.  Taiwan's well trained
240,000-man army  can expand, under full mobilization, to
400,000 men in 17 divisions, with 570 so-so tanks and 500  m
guns.  Taiwan is mountainous and lends itself naturally to
defense.  Any Chinese invasion force would encounter severe
logistics problems and risks being cut off.

If the US 7th Fleet joined battle, China would face
disaster.  A US carrier battle recently put Beijing on
warning by steaming through the Taiwan Strait. It is now on
station, 200 miles east of Taiwan.  A second, `swing'
carrier battle group is heading at flank speed towards
Taiwan from the Gulf.  

US carrier aircraft would  be reinforced by Marine F-18's 
from American bases in nearby Okinawa. At least two wings of
Air Force F-15's and F-16's could reach Taiwan and Okinawa
in 24 hours.  This force would sweep the Chinese from the
sky and then fall upon the Chinese invasion armada.  US
surface combatants would join in with Tomahawk and Harpoon
missiles. US nuclear attack subs would quickly sink
escorting Chinese warships and old Romeo-class submarines. .


It would be an Ocean Storm - a reply of Desert Storm, where
Iraq's obsolete army was caught in the open desert without
air cover, and slaughtered.  This time, a Chinese invasion
fleet would provide the target-rich environment.
Beijing knows this and will be unlikely to invade either
Taiwan or the Nationalist-controlled Pescadores Islands.  
But the Nationalist islands of the Matsu group, Amoy and
Quemoy, the latter only  a mile from the Chinese mainland,   
are terribly vulnerable.  Beijing might settle for invading
one or more of these heavily-fortified islands. In this
case, a major US military response is less certain. Beijing
could claim an important military victory, humiliate Taiwan
- and win much face.

The main lesson, so far, from this most interesting crisis: 
American military power in the Pacific has declined far too
much.  Another carrier battle group is clearly needed in the
western Pacific.  The US Navy, keeper of the Pax Pacifica,
is stretched perilously thin.  Perhaps the Philippines now 
understands how foolish it was to oust the US from its great
naval and air bases at Subic Bay and Clarke Field.

For now, the crisis is just under control. One accident,or
misfire,  however, and we go to Condition Red in the Taiwan
Strait. 


copyright  Eric Margolis 1996

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