XPost: alt.fan.j-garofalo, alt.atheism, alt.radio.talk   
   XPost: seattle.politics   
      
   On Thu, 08 Apr 2004 17:03:50 -0000, Eric da Red    
   wrote:   
      
   >> I understand that. But a realpolitik  look will say that the US can't   
   >> cut and run.   
   >   
   >What would happen if the US did?   
   >   
   >I'm not arguing in favor of this approach, but it can be useful to   
   >examine its probable results.   
      
      
   From my reading - my guess would be Sunni - Shia civil war. Kurds in   
   the north pushing for an independent Kurdistan which will bring Turkey   
   and Iran down upon them.  Iraq is 60% Sunni, which is to say more like   
   Iran in their fundamentalist nature.  Iran will flood the country with   
   armed "missionaries" (on a greater scale than they are already).   
   Baathists will become targets and have to respond with organized force   
   to avoid being wiped out for past abuses and power..   
      
   There will be a prolonged blood bath. Possibly lasting a decade or   
   several. (On top of the worlds second largest oil reserve - meaning   
   other powers will seek sway and influence and pick sides - we'll see   
   French proxies, Russian proxies, and of course we'll have our own   
   proxies. )   
      
   We will see what once was one of the most secular, educated and   
   developed nations in the region become more Iranian in nature.   This   
   will create a more solid fundamentalist belt from Afghanistan through   
   Iran and Iraq - putting some 75 million consolidated into one region   
   of fundamental Islam.   
      
   The instability and possible fundamentalist outcome both will threaten   
   neighboring Kuwait, Qatar, Arabia and our other oil friends.  Risking   
   destabilization and revolution in these countries as well.  You could   
   end up with a huge Islamic revolution on a scale far in excess of what   
   we got into bed with Saddam for when the Ayatollah came to power in   
   Iraq.   
      
   Containment of Saddam was far more stable and dependable than either   
   of these messes. But we can't get the genie back in the bottle. Now we   
   have to find a way to minimize the damage (with a long term focus). To   
   my mind withdrawing is not the answer. It pains me to say it.  I don't   
   think we should have invaded, but we've made a mess we're obligated   
   morally and politically to clean up as best we can. To me - that's not   
   an occupation.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)