From: lessgovt@gmail.com   
      
   Chinese Pressure Tactics Against Other Countries Largely Ineffective, Study   
   Finds   
   By Lingling Wei, March 21, 2023, WSJ   
   Chinese trade restrictions and other punitive measures against countries seen   
   as offending its interests have a poor record of getting Beijing the outcome   
   it wants, a new study finds.   
      
   In some cases, according to the study, published by the Center for Strategic   
   and International Studies on Tuesday, the strategy has produced the opposite   
   of what China has sought by driving countries closer to the U.S., the biggest   
   threat seen by the    
   Chinese leadership to its national interests.   
      
   “Chinese coercion is not just largely ineffective, but it creates long-term   
   strategic costs for China,” said Matthew Reynolds, a fellow at the   
   Washington think tank who co-wrote the report.   
      
   The study examined what it describes as China’s use of coercive tactics   
   against eight countries since 2010, including Japan, Norway, the Philippines,   
   Mongolia, South Korea, Australia, Canada and Lithuania, following moves taken   
   by these governments    
   that China viewed as having challenged its territorial claims, security or   
   positions on other issues.   
      
   For instance, Beijing took umbrage at Canberra’s call in 2020 for an   
   investigation into the origin of Covid-19 and slammed tariffs on Australian   
   wines. In 2021, in response to the strengthening of relations between   
   Lithuania and Taiwan, which Beijing    
   regards as its own territory, China stopped providing permits for Lithuanian   
   food imports and made it difficult for Lithuanian firms to renew and close   
   contracts in China.   
      
   While China’s actions have inflicted pain on certain companies or sectors in   
   those countries, the study says, Beijing has proven unsuccessful in getting   
   their governments to reverse course in their China policy and instead has   
   given some of them    
   political cover to be tougher on China.   
      
   In 2016, for example, soon after Seoul approved deployment of the U.S.   
   missile-defense system known as Thaad to guard against the North Korean   
   threat, China expressed concerns about the system’s potential impact on its   
   national security. China then    
   closed almost all stores owned by Korean conglomerate Lotte Group and   
   suspended subsidies for electric vehicles powered by Korean-produced   
   batteries.    
      
   Seoul responded by boosting economic ties with southeastern Asian countries   
   and India, and last year, South Koreans elected President Yoon Suk Yeol, who   
   campaigned on a harder stance toward Beijing and promised closer ties with the   
   U.S.   
      
   The lack of effectiveness of such Chinese pressure is partly because of   
   Beijing’s aversion to incurring costs, according to the study. It has at   
   times even abandoned coercive measures that became too costly. For example,   
   Beijing recently lifted a ban    
   on Australian coal it imposed in 2020, as it looked for ways to offset   
   much-increased commodity prices partly triggered by its own restrictions.   
      
   “We haven’t seen China being willing to impose high costs on itself,”   
   Mr. Reynolds said.   
      
   China’s punitive measures have also largely failed to impose significant   
   costs on targeted countries, the study shows.    
      
   For example, after Canada’s 2018 detention of Meng Wanzhou, the chief   
   financial officer of Huawei Technologies Co., at the behest of the U.S., China   
   revoked the import licenses of two leading Canadian exporters of canola seed,   
   used to make vegetable    
   oil. But Canadian canola found its way to China via the United Arab Emirates.   
   China lifted the canola restrictions last year after Ms. Weng returned to   
   China in 2021 in a tightly orchestrated prisoner exchange.   
      
   In another example, following Beijing’s ban, Australian coal was rerouted to   
   markets in India, Japan, and South Korea.   
      
   The Australian Department of the Treasury estimated that Australian exporters   
   largely offset the $4 billion decline in exports to China with an increase of   
   $3.3 billion of exports to new markets. The net loss because of the Chinese   
   ban, according to the    
   study, was only 0.25% of the value of Australian exports.   
      
   The CSIS analysis predicts that Beijing will continue to use the tactics to   
   pursue its foreign-policy goals despite their limited potency. “Economic   
   coercion offers a relatively low-risk way of asserting its influence and   
   standing up on the    
   international stage for what it perceives as its core interests.” the study   
   says. “Coercion is a tool of statecraft that China is actively seeking to   
   sharpen.”   
      
   So far, China has mainly relied on administrative tools such as enforcement of   
   regulations by customs officials and state-owned enterprises to carry out   
   punitive measures against foreign businesses. In recent years, it has unveiled   
   what the study terms    
   as “formal economic coercion instruments,” including its version of a   
   Washington export blacklist known as the entity list, which could be used to   
   bar foreign companies from selling in China.   
      
   Beijing so far has largely refrained from deploying the new tools, even as the   
   U.S. is working with Japan and the Netherlands in restricting the sale of   
   advanced microchips technology to China. But the existence of the new tools,   
   says the analysis,    
   threatens to put multinational companies operating in China in a legal bind   
   that could raise the cost of additional sanctions against the country.   
      
   To counter Chinese coercion, the report says, the U.S. can help allies and   
   partners strengthen their supply-chain resilience and negotiate free-trade   
   agreements that offer them market access, potentially making them less   
   dependent on the China market.    
   The U.S. can also provide credit and other support for countries that have   
   suffered punitive measures from China.   
      
   “Together these resilience and relief measures are designed to make China   
   think twice before acting,” said Matthew Goodman, senior vice president for   
   economics at the CSIS and the other co-author of the study.   
      
   https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-pressure-tactics-against-ot   
   er-countries-largely-ineffective-study-finds-3f49561f   
      
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