From: lessgovt@gmail.com   
      
   China Is Facing a Moment of Truth About Its Low Retirement Age   
   By Liyan Qi, April 11, 2023, WSJ   
      
   For decades, in China, middle age has been when many start to get ready for   
   retirement.   China has one of the lowest retirement ages among major   
   economies. Under a policy unchanged since the 1950s, it allows women to retire   
   as early as at age 50 and men    
   at 60. Now, local governments are running out of money just as a wave of   
   retirees hits. That is leaving Beijing with little choice but to ask people to   
   work longer—a move economists say is long overdue but one still likely to   
   meet with resistance.   
      
   China’s version of “baby boomers”—those born after China emerged from   
   devastating starvation in the early 1960s—are retiring in droves. Even with   
   government subsidies, by 2035 China’s state-led urban pension fund will run   
   out of money    
   accumulated over the previous two decades, leaving it to rely entirely on new   
   workers’ contributions, according to projections made in 2019 by the Chinese   
   Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.    
      
   Former central bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan warned in a February speech that China   
   must address its pension shortfall and communicate that many Chinese may need   
   to rely on private pension savings.   
      
   “The pension system in China needs to be prepared against a huge and   
   severely aged population,” he said, according to a readout of his remarks to   
   a wealth-management forum. “Face the problem with the pension system.   
   Don’t dodge it,” Mr. Zhou    
   said, according to the readout.   
      
   China has seemed to be on the verge of changing the retirement age for years,   
   but has let several deadlines pass without coming up with a plan. However,   
   economists and demographers say Beijing may finally take action this year, as   
   the economy is starting    
   to recover and as Xi Jinping has secured a third term as China’s   
   leader—which makes a politically unpopular move less perilous for the   
   Communist Party.    
      
   Many countries face similar struggles. French President Emmanuel Macron’s   
   push to raise France’s retirement age elicited weeklong protests. Like   
   China, the U.S. is facing demographic headwinds with the cost of its Social   
   Security system starting to    
   exceed its income in 2021.    
      
   But China is aging at much lower income levels and at a much faster pace than   
   France and the U.S. One result of its one-child policy, in place for decades   
   before being scrapped in 2016, is a dwindling number of women of childbearing   
   age and a generation    
   of only children who are less eager to marry and start a family.    
      
   The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security estimates that more than   
   40 million Chinese—more than the population of Canada—will retire over the   
   five-year period ending in 2025. The working-age population—usually defined   
   in China as those    
   between 16 and 59—is expected to drop by 35 million in the same period,   
   illustrating the lack of young people to make up for the shortfall in older   
   workers.   
      
   “Officials have been watching those numbers. Everyone knows the current   
   retirement ages are not sustainable,” said Cai Yong, a sociologist at the   
   University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.    
      
   But the urgency from officials and economists isn’t matched among many   
   middle-aged Chinese, who have long looked forward to retiring while still in   
   their prime.   
      
   Guo Jinyi retired last year at the age of 50, after working at a state-owned   
   insurer in the southeastern province of Zhejiang for more than 20 years. She   
   receives a pension of 6,000 yuan a month, equivalent to $872, which she   
   termed, “just enough to    
   start the second chapter of my life.”   
      
   Her days now center on taking dance classes and riding dinosaur-shaped toy   
   cars with her granddaughter outside local shopping malls. In any Chinese city,   
   retirees like her can be seen group-dancing in public squares or exercising on   
   equipment installed    
   in many housing compounds.   
      
   “I’m lucky. I could retire on time. It’s not really fair for young   
   people to retire later,” Ms. Guo said.   
      
   Chinese migrant workers and farmers often work longer than white-collar   
   employees. Still, the low retirement ages for Chinese workers stand out among   
   major economies. The average retirement age in countries in the Organization   
   for Economic Cooperation    
   and Development was 64.2 years for men and 63.4 years for women retiring in   
   2020, the latest data available.   
      
   China’s lopsided demographics are only going to get worse. Last year,   
   China’s population shrank for the first time in decades following years of   
   declining birth numbers.   
      
   Those 60 or older already account for one-fifth of China’s population and   
   are expected to be nearly half at the end of the century, according to United   
   Nations estimates. By comparison, both France and the U.S. have larger shares   
   of the 60-plus now, at    
   28% and 24% of their populations respectively, but that will rise less   
   dramatically than in China, reaching 40% of French and 36% of Americans in the   
   year 2100.    
      
   Even after decades of rapid economic growth, China’s per capita gross   
   domestic product was at $12,556 in 2021, less than one-third and one-fifth of   
   that of France and the U.S., respectively, according to World Bank data.   
      
   Unlike in France where Mr. Macron forced through a change of the retirement   
   age to 64 from 62 in one go, Beijing would likely go about it much more   
   gently, with an increase of just a few months a year for several years. Some   
   government researchers have    
   suggested that a first move could target the retirement age for women,   
   bringing it level with that of men. Currently women in certain categories can   
   retire at 50, while others need to wait until they are 55.   
      
   A slow rollout would still be highly unpopular. In February, a reform that   
   threatens to cut into retirees’ medical benefits drew protests in the   
   central Chinese city of Wuhan. But protests of the size seen in France are   
   unlikely in China. That said,    
   even authoritarian regimes aren’t immune to severe backlash over retirement   
   changes. In 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin had to soften a plan to   
   raise the ages when men and women could draw pensions following a public   
   outcry.   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)