From: lessgovt@gmail.com   
      
   It’s Too Early to Count Putin Out   
   By Walter Russell Mead, June 26, 2023, WSJ   
      
   There are 3 things to bear in mind as we try to make sense of the dramatic   
   developments in Russia. The first is that politics in nondemocratic societies,   
   especially Russia, can look very different from what we know in the West.   
   Scheming politicians in    
   Western societies organize parliamentary revolts or make their arguments in   
   the press. When parliaments lack power, and the press isn’t free, political   
   infighting moves to other venues. Usually, politics in these societies takes   
   place behind closed    
   doors. When the infighting bursts into the open, it can look dramatic, but   
   drama isn’t always catastrophe.   
      
   Second, the public was, for the most part, uninvolved. There were scattered   
   signs of public support for Wagner, but there was no surge of public unrest.   
   No throngs of demonstrators filled the streets of Moscow; no huge crowds   
   gathered at barricades to    
   welcome or block Prigozhin’s advance. Even at a moment of perceived regime   
   weakness, ordinary Russians stayed home. The Russian public may be skeptical   
   of its leaders and unhappy with the war, but for now politics remains the   
   preserve of the elite. All    
   this, from Putin’s standpoint, is good news. Dictatorships rely on public   
   acquiescence and passivity much more than on enthusiastic support, and judging   
   from the weekend’s events, Putin’s hold on the Russian street looks   
   reasonably secure.   
      
   Finally, we should remember that Messrs. Prigozhin and Shoigu both have real   
   successes under their belts. Wagner matters to Putin. Wagner won, at great   
   cost, the only real Russian victory in recent months when its troops forced   
   the Ukrainians out of    
   Bakhmut. Wagner mercenaries, taking advantage of the unaccountable strategic   
   paralysis that seems to have gripped Washington and the West in the face of   
   the group’s growth, have made great strides across the Middle East and   
   Africa, bringing wealth and    
   prestige to the Kremlin. That network is a significant asset, and unless Putin   
   is certain that it will function as well under new leadership, Prigozhin may   
   still be too valuable to discard.   
      
   But Shoigu is also useful. After a string of reversals, the Russian army seems   
   to have stepped up its game. Deep minefields, well-planned trenches and   
   fortifications, as well as Russian countermeasures against Himars and other   
   Western weapons, have so    
   far blunted Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Additionally, Putin believes   
   Shoigu’s Central Asian ethnic and regional background makes him a safe   
   choice to lead the Defense Ministry. Without the dense networks within the   
   armed services that Russian-   
   background generals have, Shoigu would have a hard time launching a coup.   
      
   The West very much wants Putin to fail, and if the weekend’s events signal   
   the decline of the Putinocracy, your Global View columnist will gladly   
   participate in the celebrations. But if Russia’s defenses hold in Ukraine,   
   Wagner continues to prosper    
   globally and the Russian public stays passive, Putin may be in less trouble   
   than many of us hope.   
      
   https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-too-early-to-count-putin-out-pr   
   gozhin-wagner-mutiny-defense-asset-cf7d98e3   
      
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