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   From: crook&whore@whitehouse.us   
      
   pothead  wrote in   
   news:t2i68u$3l2vo$131@news.freedyn.de:   
      
   > Joe Biden, the joke is on you, America.   
      
   Stocks look expensive and a recession is likely to strike next year, says   
   Steve Hanke.   
      
   The dangers of holding stocks instead of government bonds are typically   
   offset by their superior projected returns.   
      
   However, Treasury yields have swelled and stock prices have surged in   
   recent months, resulting in a negative equity risk premium — stocks are   
   slated to return less than bonds despite being riskier assets.   
      
   "That's unusual and suggests that stocks are pretty pricey," Hanke told   
   Insider.   
      
   The professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University is known   
   for serving as the president of Toronto Trust Argentina when it was the   
   world's best-performing market mutual fund in 1995.   
      
   As for the housing market, Hanke noted there's a shortage of homes for   
   sale. He attributed that to limited inventory of existing homes, and more   
   than 15 years of insufficient construction of new homes. As a result, he   
   suggested unmet demand would shore up prices.   
      
   Hanke, a former economic adviser to President Ronald Reagan, also laid out   
   to Insider why he expects US growth to falter.   
      
   He noted the nation's money supply "exploded" during the pandemic as the   
   federal government flooded the economy with cash. That caused asset prices   
   to soar and, later, economic activity to surge.   
      
   Annualized inflation also hit a 40-year high of more than 9% last summer,   
   as the professor and John Greenwood, a fellow at Johns Hopkins and   
   Invesco's former chief economist, predicted in July 2021.   
      
   The Federal Reserve has "thrown things into reverse" since last spring,   
   Hanke said. The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate from   
   nearly zero to north of 5%, and worked to shrink its balance sheet.   
      
   "The money supply is falling like a stone, and is currently contracting at   
   a minus 3.7% annual rate – something we have not seen since 1938," he   
   said.   
      
   The renowned economist warned that a decline of that magnitude would   
   likely choke economic growth: "We believe that a recession is baked in the   
   cake and will commence during the first half of 2024."   
      
   Hanke also highlighted that he and Greenwood predicted in February that   
   inflation would fall to about 2% by the end of 2023. Price growth has   
   already cooled to around 3% in recent months.   
      
   Moreover, the veteran currency and commodity trader flagged the gap   
   between the current 10-year Treasury yield of around 4.3%, and the   
   expected 1.9% yield based on its trend rate over the last 43 years.   
      
   "With lower inflation and a recession right around the corner, I   
   anticipate that the 10-year yields will come down and the gap will close,"   
   Hanke said.   
      
   The economist has been ringing the alarm on stocks and the economy for   
   some time. He warned in February that pressure on corporate profits and   
   shrinking output didn't bode well for equities, and cautioned earlier this   
   month that complacent investors were "sleepwalking" into market turmoil   
   and a recession.   
      
   https://finance.yahoo.com/news/top-economist-steve-hanke-says-   
   000406280.html   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)