From: lessgovt@gmail.com   
      
   African Leaders Warily Eye Their Generals After Coups Surge   
   By Nicholas Bariyo, Sept. 12, 2023, WSJ   
      
   “Some African leaders forget that the poverty and inequality clearly spread   
   out in many countries also affect family members of high-ranking military   
   officers,” said Victoire Ingabire, a Rwandan opposition leader who spent six   
   years in jail after    
   being accused of inciting an insurrection against Kagame’s regime. “I   
   believe this wave of coups will spread and topple more regimes.”   
      
   The economic pressures are steadily growing, fueled in part by the disruptions   
   to the world supply of grain following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As food   
   supplies slow or soar in prices, a swath of countries is becoming more   
   vulnerable to coup    
   attempts. Military officers have toppled regimes in Guinea, Burkina Faso,   
   Mali, Sudan, Niger and Gabon since 2020. In Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra   
   Leone and São Tomé & Príncipe, similar takeovers have been thwarted.   
      
   After each ouster, activists have turned to social media to rally supporters,   
   who pour into the streets in support of coup leaders.   
      
   Meanwhile, Russia’s growing role as security provider, coupled with   
   China’s growing economic influence, means military leaders are less   
   concerned about upsetting Western powers, chiefly the U.S. and France. Indeed,   
   many coup supporters have been    
   filmed waving Russian flags on the streets, while France, once the colonial   
   power in many of the affected countries, has largely held its silence and in   
   some places made plans to withdraw military advisers and other forces.   
      
   American military officials have described their frustration over the   
   involvement of U.S.-trained troops in a number of the uprisings. But now at   
   risk are leaders in countries including Equatorial Guinea, Mauritania, Sierra   
   Leone, the Gambia and the    
   Central African Republic, according to Oxford Economics Africa’s political   
   economic risk model.   
      
   After years of poor governance, problematic elections and widespread   
   corruption, elites in many Western-backed countries have grown wealthier while   
   millions of poorer people are left behind, deepening a pool of resentment.   
   Some 440 million people in sub-   
   Saharan Africa live in poverty, an increase of 30 million people since 2015,   
   according to charity group Compassion International.   
      
   Low literacy rates are further dampening growth, adding to the instability,   
   analysts say. More than half of the adult population in nearly a dozen fragile   
   African countries are unable to read and write.   
      
   “Countries with less than 40% adult literacy can’t grow sustainably, so   
   political leaders cannot remain popular,” said Charlie Robertson, head of   
   macro strategy at U.K.-based investment firm FIM Partners. “Longstanding   
   leaders now have to worry    
   about the loyalty of the military and more money is likely to flow to loyal   
   officers at the expense of vitally needed education, child health or   
   infrastructure priorities.”   
      
   There are signs this is already happening.   
      
   Last week, Guinea-Bissau’s Embalo appointed Gen. Tomas Djassi as head of   
   presidential security and Gen. Horta Inta his new chief of staff. Djassi was   
   the former head of the elite National Guard, which intervened to foil a coup   
   attempt in February last    
   year.   
      
   Uganda’s Museveni is expected to send additional troops to reinforce the   
   700-strong Ugandan unit protecting his ally, Equatorial Guinea’s leader   
   Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo.   
      
   Back home, Museveni retired senior military leaders last month who have played   
   key roles in suppressing his opponents. Prominent among them is Kayihura, a   
   U.S.-trained four-star general. Kayihura spent decades working as an assistant   
   to Museveni before    
   he was named police chief in 2005, a role he filled until 2018 before   
   returning to the military, where he was a popular figure in security circles,   
   according to analysts. A spokesman for Museveni described the retirements as   
   long planned.   
      
   In Sierra Leone, meanwhile, authorities arrested more than a dozen   
   high-ranking soldiers and several police officers last month, accusing them of   
   attempting to overthrow President Julius Maada Bio’s government less than a   
   month after a disputed    
   election.   
      
   The purges and reshuffles will likely continue. Analysts say they point to how   
   the exercise of power has decisively shifted, with more African leaders   
   increasingly viewing the task of preserving their rule as a continual effort   
   to keep both voters and    
   soldiers happy—and not just something limited to periodic and frequently   
   rigged elections.   
      
   Not that would-be coup plotters necessarily offer anything different from the   
   leaders they aim to overthrow.   
      
   Pieter Scribante, a specialist in the region who tracks political risk at   
   Oxford Economics, says that many of the recent coups were designed to ward off   
   any larger upheaval that could threaten the privileged status of the armed   
   forces as economic    
   pressures and public discontent builds. He described the putsches as   
   “self-preserving moves to keep the overall system in place,” and predicted   
   that last month’s coup in Gabon won’t be the last.   
      
   “The threat of further coup-contagion looms in the background,” he said.   
   “Our model sees coups and governance risks as being elevated over the next   
   18 months.”   
      
   https://www.wsj.com/world/africa/african-leaders-warily-eye-thei   
   -generals-after-coups-surge-7e44419b   
      
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