From: lessgovt@gmail.com   
      
   In Blow to Russia, Armenian Separatists Capitulate in Nagorno-Karabakh   
   By Thomas Grove, Sept. 20, 2023, WSJ   
   Armenian separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed Wednesday to disarm and   
   discuss reintegration with Azerbaijan following a swift but deadly assault by   
   Azerbaijani forces, a capitulation that signals the end of decades of   
   ethnic-Armenian rule in the    
   enclave and the rapid decline of Russian influence in the former Soviet Union   
   territories.   
      
   The terms of the cease-fire lay groundwork that could bring to a close the   
   autonomous rule by the population of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was won from Baku   
   in a bloody yearslong war after the fall of the Soviet empire.   
      
   Fighting appeared to continue in parts of the enclave hours after the signing   
   of the cease-fire, but the speed at which the Armenian separatists agreed to   
   abandon their armed struggle underscores Moscow’s waning power over events   
   in the region as its    
   forces are stretched in Ukraine.   
      
   The Kremlin has used the frozen conflict—one of a handful that dotted the   
   post-Soviet landscape—as a lever to maintain sway over both Armenia and   
   Azerbaijan. Over the years, Moscow has sent both weapons and peacekeepers to   
   the region while using    
   diplomacy to retain its position as ultimate arbiter over geopolitics there.    
      
   “Russia’s leverage is much weakened by what’s happening in Ukraine. We   
   see the Armenians moving away from Russia and Azerbaijan having a relationship   
   with Russia that is more on its own terms,” said Thomas de Waal, an expert   
   on Nagorno-Karabakh    
   and senior fellow at Carnegie Europe, a Brussels-based think tank.   
      
   Nagorno-Karabakh said it lost 24 civilians and soldiers in the daylong   
   conflict that began Tuesday with artillery assaults on what Azerbaijan said   
   were Armenian military targets in the breakaway region. Locals posting on   
   social media also reported    
   strikes on residential neighborhoods in the territory’s main city,   
   Stepanakert. Russia’s Defense Ministry said peacekeepers had come under fire   
   and died during the violence, without specifying how many were killed.   
   Azerbaijani authorities haven’t    
   published any information on dead or wounded soldiers.   
      
   Azerbaijan says it plans to take back the enclave—which sits inside its   
   borders but is populated almost entirely by ethnic Armenians who have ruled   
   since the 1990s under the terms of a peace deal brokered by Russia. Skirmishes   
   in the years since    
   erupted into conflict in 2020 when Azerbaijan reclaimed areas around the   
   territory. That battle ended, again with Russian arbitration, guaranteeing   
   Armenian separatists control over Stepanakert and supply routes from Armenia,   
   policed by Moscow’s troops.   
    But peace has remained shaky with Armenia’s leaders complaining that Russia   
   is no longer able to enforce the deal, distracted by its war in Ukraine.   
      
   A senior Azeri official said Baku had advanced on the enclave while Russia’s   
   troops and arms are tied up in Ukraine. Baku had told Russia about its   
   intentions ahead of time, the official said, but Moscow failed to act in part   
   because it seeks regime    
   change in Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has increasingly   
   criticized Russia’s capabilities as a guarantor of security and worked to   
   forge stronger links with the West.   
      
   The official said further hostilities couldn’t be ruled out if reintegration   
   talks scheduled for Thursday collapse.   
      
   Pashinyan said that his government supported the decision of the   
   Nagorno-Karabakh separatists, but that the cease-fire hadn’t entirely   
   stopped hostilities, which local journalists said were continuing sporadically   
   even in Stepanakert. It couldn’t be    
   learned whether the ethnic Armenians there were involved in any fighting.   
      
   The cease-fire terms were offered by Russian peacekeepers who have remained   
   inside Azerbaijan’s territory, but were likely drawn up in close   
   coordination with Azerbaijan, said analysts.   
      
   The U.S., Russia and the European Union said they had all made last-ditch   
   efforts to dissuade Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev from attacking the   
   territory, which has long held the trappings of an independent state but has   
   remained unrecognized    
   internationally. Nagorno-Karabakh has relied almost solely on Armenia for its   
   links to the outside world.    
      
   Russia, which still has a military base inside Armenia, has seen its influence   
   steadily wane in the South Caucasus, a territory crisscrossed by oil-and-gas   
   pipelines where the U.S., Turkey and Iran all vie for influence. Earlier this   
   month, U.S. forces    
   began joint military exercises that saw 175 Armenian soldiers training for 10   
   days with about 85 soldiers from U.S. Army Europe and Africa Command outside   
   the Armenian capital of Yerevan.   
      
   On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the leaders of both   
   Azerbaijan and Armenia to express his concern over the escalation. Blinken,   
   who was in New York attending the United Nations General Assembly, urged   
   Aliyev to cease its military    
   action in Nagorno-Karabakh. He also told Pashinyan that he had urged   
   Azerbaijan to return to dialogue immediately.   
      
   Blinken has been working to mediate discussions in the hope of finding a   
   long-term solution, including meeting both leaders together in Washington   
   twice over the past year, a senior State Department official said.   
      
   The Azeri offensive is the culmination of a nearly yearlong effort to cut   
   Nagorno-Karabakh’s links to Armenia through a de facto blockade that has led   
   to shortages in food, fuel and medicine. In recent weeks, Azerbaijan gathered   
   its forces around    
   Nagorno-Karabakh.   
      
   The U.S. had been encouraged by the passage of the first humanitarian aid   
   through the corridor on Monday, the official added, which made news of   
   Azerbaijan’s latest military operation “particularly egregious.”   
      
   On Wednesday, the elected leader of the region said international efforts had   
   failed and that authorities would be forced to sign a cease-fire agreement to   
   protect civilians, who have worried about their continued presence in what   
   they call Artsakh in    
   Armenian, a region with deep historical roots for Armenians.   
      
   The cease-fire, Nagorno-Karabakh authorities said, would end hostilities,   
   force the withdrawal of any Armenian armed forces, the disarmament of local   
   Nagorno-Karabakh troops and trigger talks on reintegration as early as   
   Thursday. Armenia denies    
   stationing troops in the enclave.   
      
      
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