XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.home.repair, alt.politics.trump
XPost: talk.politics.guns
From: president@kamala.haha
On 29 Jun 2024, J Carlson posted some
news:v5pp56$2mio$5@dont-email.me:
> Who was trying to dictate rules here, scooter?
You as usual.
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
If TV debates decided elections, world markets seem remarkably calm about
the prospect of a Donald Trump return to the White House as the first half
of the trading year ends on Friday.
It may be too early to stake bets on November's U.S. election outcome just
yet, and there are many pressing issues on the table before then - not
least a critical update on Friday on the PCE inflation gauge favored by
the Federal Reserve and the first round of the French assembly election at
the weekend.
But U.S. President Joe Biden's poor performance in Thursday's first of two
televised face offs with Trump would appear to put the former President in
pole position, with opinion polls before the event showing the two neck
and neck.
Perhaps one reason for investor hesitancy was post-debate speculation that
Democrats may push Biden to stand aside and see an alternative candidate
selected at the party's convention instead.
Either way, U.S. stocks and the dollar (.DXY), opens new tab were
marginally higher early on Friday and Treasury yields steady. The VIX
'fear index' (.VIX), opens new tab of equity volatility, and related
futures on that index covering the election, remain subdued near the
lowest levels of the year.
Even currencies potentially most sensitive to Trump's pledges on tariff
rises or immigration barriers, like China's yuan or Mexico's peso were
undisturbed.
Once again, the big mover on the currency markets was Japan's yen , which
continued to wend its way to new 38-year lows and briefly breached 161 per
dollar in the face of continued Japanese government warnings about a
repeat of April's intervention to support it.
Japan appointed a new top foreign exchange diplomat as the yen plumbed new
lows, heightening expectations of imminent action by Tokyo to shore up the
ailing currency. Atsushi Mimura, a financial regulation veteran, replaces
Masato Kanda.
French bonds markets grew nervier, meantime, ahead of the two-round French
elections on Sunday and July 7. The risk premium on French government
bonds over German equivalents rose to its widest since the euro zone
crisis 12 years ago with polls still suggesting far right parties with the
highest percentage vote, though still short of an overall majority in
parliament.
The spread between German and French 10-year yields reached 84 basis
points, its widest since September 2012, although nominal 10-year French
yields remained below peaks seen late last year.
Back on Wall Street, the economic picture appeared to darken somewhat.
First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits drifted lower last
week but the number of people on jobless rolls jumped to a 2-1/2 year high
in mid-June, suggesting the labor market was cooling amid slowing economic
growth.
Other data showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a
closely watched proxy for business spending plans, unexpectedly dropping
0.6% last month and the goods trade deficit widened 2.7% to $100.6
billion.
All of which saw the Atlanta Fed's real-time 'GDPNow' estimate fall to
2.7%, with U.S. economic surprise indexes at their most negative in almost
two years.
Better news is expected from the PCE inflation release for May out later.
A 0.1% monthly increase in the core PCE is forecast and that would bring
the annual core rate down to 2.6% - its lowest in more than three years.
Still, Fed officials still appear in no rush to loosen interest rates.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that inflation
"appears to be narrowing" and that should allow one rate cut later this
year - less that the 45bp priced into futures markets right now.
[continued in next message]
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
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