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   From: biden.lied@atr.org   
      
   WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added just 143,000 jobs last month, but   
   the unemployment rate fell to 4% to start 2025.   
      
   The first monthly jobs report of Donald Trump’s second presidency points   
   to a solid but unspectacular labor market. January job creation dipped   
   from the 261,000 added in November and 307,000 in December. Economists had   
   expected about 170,000 new jobs in January.   
      
   The outlook is uncertain as Trump prepares to shake up economic   
   policymaking by cutting federal jobs, imposing big taxes on foreign goods   
   and deporting millions of undocumented workers. His tariffs and   
   immigration crackdown could push up prices, potentially rekindling the   
   inflation that turned many U.S. voters against President Joe Biden and   
   helped return Trump to the White House.   
      
   For now, most Americans still enjoy unusual job security. But for those   
   looking for work, the job hunt has been getting harder compared with the   
   red-hot hiring days of 2021 to 2023.   
      
   Average hourly wages rose by 0.5% from December and 4.1% from January   
   2024, a bit hotter than forecasters had expected. That may be   
   disappointing for the inflation fighters at the Federal Reserve. Still,   
   some inflationary pressure from wage gains is being offset by U.S.   
   productivity growth, which allows companies to pay more and earn fatter   
   profits without raising prices.   
      
   “Employers are really maintaining their workforce, but they are not hiring   
   significantly, nor are they laying off,’’ said Gregory Daco, chief   
   economist at the consulting firm EY Parthenon. Daco expects average job   
   growth to slow to between 100,000 and 150,000 a month this year (down   
   slightly from the 2024 average of 166,000 new jobs a month).   
      
      
   The Labor Department also revised payrolls for November and December up by   
   a combined 100,000.   
      
   Citing the strong upward revisions from late 2024, Carl Weinberg and Mary   
   Chen of High Frequency Economics wrote that “There is no cause for concern   
   about the strength of the economy in today’s employment report.’' But they   
   added that hiring in recent months suggests the Fed will be in no hurry to   
   cut interest rates after doing so three times in 2024.   
      
   January hiring was narrow. Healthcare (44,000 new jobs), retail (34,000)   
   and government (32,000) together accounted for 77% of new jobs last month.   
   Mines shed 8,000 jobs.   
      
   The Labor Department said the Los Angeles wildfires and a cold snap in the   
   Northeast and Midwest had “no discernable" impact on the January jobs   
   numbers.   
      
   The future is cloudier.   
      
   A federal judge on Thursday temporarily blocked President Donald Trump’s   
   plan to push out federal workers using financial incentives. A federal   
   hiring freeze that Trump imposed Jan. 20 is a “negative for employment   
   growth,’’ Bradley Saunders, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote last   
   week.   
      
   Economists are also worried about Trump’s threats of a trade war against   
   other countries. He’s already imposed a 10% tax on imports from China and   
   is threatening tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the European Union and   
   possibly, a universal levy on all imports.   
      
   Tariffs paid by U.S. importers, but typically passed along to customers,   
   could heat up inflation – which has fallen from the four-decade high it   
   reached in mid-2022 but is seemingly stuck above the Fed’s 2% target. If   
   tariffs push prices higher, the Fed may cancel or postpone the two   
   interest-rate cuts it had forecast for this year. That would be bad for   
   economic growth and job creation.   
      
   Employers also worry about the economic fallout from Trump’s promises to   
   deport millions of immigrants working in the United States.   
      
   Coastal Luxury Outdoors, a Florida pool, maintenance and landscaping   
   company, is struggling to find workers.   
      
   “We’re highly reliant on immigrant labor, to the point where even if we   
   see reduced demand due to tariffs and other factors, we’ll still need to   
   boost our staffing levels,’’ said Rafi Friedman, company president.   
      
   Friedman said the company has a core administrative staff of about a dozen   
   people and a field service staff that fluctuates by the season. More than   
   80% of the field workforce is Hispanic, most of them foreign born.   
      
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