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   From: yourdime@outlook.com   
      
   The usual Sunday talk shows have yielded a couple of interesting excerpts   
   from two Trump administration officials on the economic outlook for the   
   next few months.   
      
   First, on ABC's This Week, host Jonathan Karl spoke with National Economic   
   Council Director Kevin Hassett, who made some comments on the Trump vs.   
   Biden economic policies.   
      
   Here's how that conversation went:   
      
   Kevin Hassett: Well, first of all, if you look at the history of   
   inflation, right, what happened was right away, Democrat spending in Joe   
   Biden's term, and we got inflation up almost to ten percent. It averaged   
   five percent over the four years. And that has created a situation where,   
   for example, mortgage rates went up, and so the typical payment for a   
   monthly mortgage payment almost doubled. The, a bag of groceries that cost   
   almost $400 when President Trump left office, is $500 or $550 when   
   President Trump came back this time. And so there's this really big hole   
   that's been dug. And then the question you could also ask of an economist   
   is, how do I summarize all this, different prices, everything? And one of   
   the ways you could do it is just look at purchasing power, the real wage.   
   Purchasing power - I'll just finish this, then I'll get back to you -   
   Purchasing power dropped by about $3,000 under Joe Biden, because the   
   wages didn't keep up with the prices. Under President Trump it's already   
   gone up by about $1,200. We understand that people still feel the pain of   
   the high prices. But we're closing the gap fast.   
      
   The economy, of course, as I'm continually pointing out, is like a   
   supertanker; it doesn't turn on a dime.   
      
   Next, on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with host  Maria Bartiromo,   
   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared to discuss inflation and growth,   
   specifically in the first quarter of 2026.   
      
   Secretary Bessent said:   
      
   The real thing that is going to happen, that is going to give Americans   
   real purchasing power increases, it's going to be through growth. We   
   passed the One Big Beautiful Bill. I am also the IRS Commissioner, and I   
   can see that working Americans, thanks to the president living up to his   
   campaign promises, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social   
   Security, deductibility of auto loans if you buy an American car, they're   
   going to be substantial refunds in the first quarter of '26. Working   
   Americans will change their withholding, and they will get a bump up in   
   their real incomes. So, I would expect in the first two quarters, we are   
   going to see the inflation curve down, and the real income curve   
   substantially accelerate, and when those two lines cross, Americans are   
   going to feel it. But Maria, I will tell you what we're not going to do.   
   What we're not going to do is tell the American people that they don't   
   know how they're feeling, which is what the Biden administration did. They   
   said it was a (inaudible), you don't know how good you have it, and we're   
   working every day to get these prices down.   
      
   Note the timing in Secretary Bessent's predictions: The first and second   
   quarters of 2026. This will be key.   
      
   Everything right now is about 2026. The economy will be the key to the   
   midterms, and the midterms will be key to the Trump administration's   
   efforts for 2027 and 2028 - up to the 2028 presidential elections. If the   
   economy isn't broadly seen to be improving by election day, 2026, it makes   
   it that much harder for the GOP to keep control of the House of   
   Representatives and the Senate; losing either or both to the Democrats   
   would hobble President Trump's efforts for the second half of his term, as   
   well as very likely distracting him with more sham impeachments.   
      
   As someone once said, "It's the economy, stupid," and that has never been   
   truer than now. It's good to see that the Trump administration is out   
   front with their messages, but there will also need to be some very   
   tangible results.   
      
   https://redstate.com/wardclark/2025/11/16/trump-administration-economic-   
   officials-forecast-new-economic-turnaround-n2196254   
      
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