XPost: talk.politics.guns, alt.politics.usa.republican, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh   
   XPost: sac.politics, alt.bush-more-liked-than-obama   
   From: oink@lizcheney.com   
      
   CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story misstated the chances of   
   Harris winning the election in the latest forecast from Decision Deck   
   HQ/The Hill. The correct number is 48 percent.   
      
   Former President Trump overtook Vice President Harris in the Decision   
   Desk HQ/The Hill election forecast Sunday, the first time he has been   
   deemed the favorite over her this cycle.   
      
   The model predicts Trump has a 52 percent chance of winning the   
   presidency, while Harris has a 48 percent chance, as of Sunday.   
      
   Since late August, the election forecast put Harris’s chances of winning   
   between approximately 54 percent and 56 percent. In early October,   
   however, those dynamics began to shift, and the election forecast   
   predicted both candidates’ chances to be closer to 50 percent.   
      
   On Oct. 17, the model predicted the two candidates were equally likely   
   to win next month, and Trump took the advantage Oct. 20.   
      
   The shift in election forecast coincides with the Republican candidate’s   
   improved polling averages in Wisconsin and Michigan, two battleground   
   states that previously leaned slightly toward Harris. Trump already had   
   a slim advantage in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.   
      
   Of the seven swing states seen as decisive in determining the outcome of   
   the 2024 election, Pennsylvania is alone in still favoring Harris in its   
   polling average.   
      
   Nonetheless, the race remains a toss-up, according to the election   
   forecast, since the polling in all seven states remains within the   
   margin of error, meaning typical polling inaccuracies could shift the   
   results in either direction.   
      
   These states are expected to be decisive in determining which candidate   
   reaches the crucial 270 electoral votes. Currently, neither Trump nor   
   Harris has a clear lead in enough states to secure that number.   
      
   https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4943975-trump-harris-elect   
   on-forecast-shift/   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)