XPost: alt.fan.tolkien, rec.arts.books.tolkien, alt.books.cs-lewis   
   From: dthierbach@usenet.arcornews.de   
      
   Öjevind Lång  wrote:   
   > "Dirk Thierbach"  skrev i meddelandet   
   > news:20090811105555.19F2.8.NOFFLE@dthierbach.news.arcor.de...   
   >>> One idea that definitely didn't make sense even at the time was that   
   >>> one could foresee the future if one only assembled enough facts   
   >>> ("psychohistory").   
      
   >> I always imagined that similar to thermodynamics: You have lots of   
   >> particles moving completely randomly, but nevertheless one can assign   
   >> properties to the complete ensemble like pressure or temperature which   
   >> obey rather strict laws.   
      
   > Yes, but a lot of particles moving at random are only one category of   
   > phenomena; in psyhohistory, you'd have to process population statistics,   
   > economical facts and forecasts [etc.]   
      
   Yes, of course. I didn't say that psychohistory is easy, or actually   
   possible. (IMHO the system is probably too close to chaotic behaviour   
   to make any realiable forecast). The point was that in principle, the   
   idea is sound, and it's not a question of the inability to measure   
   single facts, which become quickly outdated.   
      
   >> BTW, Asimov actually showed in the Foundation series that in the long   
   >> run, the laws don't hold -- a single individual can have enough   
   >> influence to let the course of events take a different turn.   
   >> Today we'd call that "chaotic behaviour", I guess.   
      
   > True, but the idea of introducing a rogue factor which upset the flow of the   
   > planned future, in the shape of the Mule, was actually suggested by John W.   
   > Campbell, the editor of "Astounding Science Fiction".   
      
   Ah, I didn't know that.   
      
   > And if I have been   
   > correctly informed, Asimov later on became nervous about this irrational   
   > anomaly and made up a story showing that the Mule was actually aslo part of   
   > the Plan.   
      
   Didn't know that either. Do you remember the name of the story? Though   
   I prefer early Asimov to late Asimov :-)   
      
   > Of course, this ambiton to make everything fit neatly into one   
   > master plan/future history, which also took in all his other major works, is   
   > one reason why his late production is so boring.   
      
   Yes, exactly.   
      
   >> In the same way, most of his robots stories are actually about   
   >> situations where the three laws *fail* to make a robot behave properly.   
      
   > I know. That's what makes them fun to read. At the same time, it is hard not   
   > to feel that manufacturing robots with too much authority would be a crappy   
   > and dangerous idea.   
      
   I think it gets more interesting if one doesn't concentrate so much on the   
   actual feasibility of such robots ("Positronic brains" are of course just   
   handwaving. "Magic", if you want).   
      
   But it's a very interesting idea philosophically. The three laws   
   really describe a perfectly altruistic human being. And that's still   
   not enough to make everything work as it should.   
      
   Who said again that SF/F is mere escapism? :-)   
      
   - Dirk   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)