3ec1061e
XPost: alt.fan.tolkien, rec.arts.books.tolkien, alt.books.cs-lewis
From: hayesmstw@hotmail.com
On Fri, 14 Aug 2009 12:29:03 -0700 (PDT), JimboCat
<103134.3516@compuserve.com> wrote:
>On Aug 12, 10:24 am, Derek Broughton wrote:
>
>> You're right, that the best analogy at the current time is meteorology.
>> Climate prediction is fairly good (even if there are many nay-sayers), but
>> actually predicting weather more than a couple of days ahead is poor and
>> more than a few weeks is nearly impossible. We _know_ we could do it with
>> sufficient information, but getting that much data is currently not
>> possible.
>
>No: your information is incorrect.
>
>These days, weather is considered, with considerable confidence, to be
>a truly chaotic system. If that is true, no amount of information
>could predict next month's weather accurately. The time period over
>which weather (as opposed to climate, of course) can be predicted
>accurately is probably no more than a week or ten days, no matter how
>good your measurements and modelling.
>
>(Except of course in places like the Atacama desert, where the
>prediction "hot and dry" is good 365.18 days a year.)
On the Greek island of Naxos in earlier times whirlwinds were thought to be
caused by Nereides and other exotika dancing. People would predict the weather
based on their own past experience. Now there are weather stations all over
the country, and reliance on meteorology is taken as a sign of modernity. It
is regarded as authoritative, though most villagers have little idea of the
principles, and this has become a substitute for empirical observation on the
part of most villagers. Yet meteorological forecasts are not noted for their
accuracy.
--
Steve Hayes
Web: http://hayesfam.bravehost.com/litmain.htm
http://www.goodreads.com/hayesstw
http://www.bookcrossing.com/mybookshelf/Methodius
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
|
