XPost: alt.global-warming, sci.skeptic   
   From: Dawn.Belle.Flood@gmail.com   
      
   On 1/26/2026 11:35 PM, Paul Aubrin wrote:   
   > Le 26/01/2026 à 15:16, Dawn Flood a écrit :   
   >> On 1/26/2026 1:21 AM, Paul Aubrin wrote:   
   >>> Le 25/01/2026 à 17:37, Dawn Flood a écrit :   
   >>>> Yep, such systems are known as "chaotic" for a reason.  Per Paul &   
   >>>> JTEM's lights, physics is invalid because no exact solution is known   
   >>>> for the 3-body problem.   
   >>>   
   >>> Physics laws are valid over validity domains because they have been   
   >>> observed to match quite well reality in these validity domains. CMIP   
   >>> models have been observed to not correctly match reality over   
   >>> "climatic" (30 years or more) periods. Those CMIP models hypothesis   
   >>> have been invalidated (forever). Maybe, one day, some climate model   
   >>> will be observed to match reality over extended periods of times by   
   >>> comparison with (future) extended observations. Until then, suspend   
   >>> your judgement on climate model predictions.   
   >>>   
   >>   
   >> In terms of geological time, 30 years is NOTHING!  You might as well   
   >> substitute "3 days".   
   >   
   > Mathematics show that the laws of the mechanics of fluid allow only very   
   > short term predictions. But, nevertheless, weather predictions compare   
   > quite well with observation for a few days. On the opposite, if the   
   > predictions made with an hypothetised law of physics don't match   
   > reality, the hyptothised law is proved invalid. If it fails one time,   
   > you won't know when it will fail again.   
      
   Hence, "all models are wrong, some models are useful."  Have you heard   
   this quote?   
      
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