From: julianlzb87@gmail.com   
      
    From the very start, there was something weird about Operation Absolute   
   Resolve. The official story went something like this: after a whirlwind   
   air attack, which included the use of suicide drones for the first time,   
   special operators from the US Army’s renowned but shadowy SFOD-D unit   
   (“Delta Force”) were helicoptered into the Fuerte Tiuna military complex   
   in the south of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. They defeated the   
   local garrison, used “massive blowtorches” to breach heavy metal doors   
   in a fortress-like residential site within the base, captured the   
   President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, then spirited them   
   back to the helicopters and flew them out to face charges in the United   
   States. Donald Trump said it had been “an assault like people have not   
   seen since World War Two.”   
      
   It was certainly a bravura operation. But was it real? The suppression   
   of enemy air-defense operations, which usually precedes such assaults,   
   lasted for barely half an hour. A shock, then, but not much awe.   
   Military facilities were left untouched. Despite, in President Trump’s   
   words, the Venezuelans knowing that the US had been coming “for months,”   
   many surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems were left exposed; others   
   showed no signs of dispersal.   
      
   More puzzling, the helicopters of the US Army’s 160th Special Operations   
   Aviation Regiment were able to get to the drop-off point, loiter near   
   Caracas for two hours, return to the drop-off point for extraction, and   
   then fly out unscathed. Not one of Venezuela’s hundreds of   
   Soviet/Russian Igla portable SAM systems – used to devastating effect   
   against rotary aircraft in India, Iraq, Rwanda, Chechnya, Peru, Libya,   
   Syria and Ukraine – appears to have been fired.   
      
   There was, then, very little, if any, opposition. Nor was there much   
   evidence that the US military had done much to suppress enemy   
   combatants. President Trump, for his part, claimed the operation had   
   used secret sonic weaponry: “The Discombobulator. I’m not allowed to   
   talk about it.” Anti-US commentators suggested skullduggery among   
   disloyal and venal elements within the Venezuelan regime and military   
   hierarchy.   
      
   What really happened here? Was it real or theater? Or was it all an   
   example of what the French philosopher and sociologist Jean Baudrillard   
   called “virtual war?”   
      
   The historian Niall Ferguson is a proponent of using alternative history   
   to explore such questions. Let’s do the same. The point of departure in   
   our imaginary January 2026 scenario comes a little before President   
   Trump gives the go-order for Absolute Resolve. US national security   
   advisors explain the situation. “As you know, Mr. President, Venezuela   
   has been under sanctions for decades. These have crippled the economy   
   without precipitating regime change. In fact, emigration flows have   
   acted as a force for self-selection, removing many of those who might   
   support a new regime. You have brilliantly ramped up the pressure since   
   returning to the White House, but even this has not worked. We both know   
   that while we would undoubtedly win a war, it could also be messy and   
   costly for us. Perhaps, Mr. President, it is time for you to do what you   
   do best: make a deal.”   
      
   The US would certainly have had leverage to strike a good bargain.   
   First, the carrot. Removing the sanctions would offer Venezuela a   
   tremendous economic boost, even accounting for the grotesque   
   inefficiencies of Chavismo economics. Plus elites could get rich in the   
   process. Secondly, the big stick. Even if an invasion would be costly to   
   the US, it would be devastating for Venezuela. Senior members of the   
   governing regime and military would be lucky to escape with their lives   
   – and they would know it.   
      
   How does this alternative reality differ from what is happening in   
   Venezuela? Not much. The country’s acting President, Delcy Rodríguez,   
   has signed into law legislation to allow privately owned and foreign   
   companies to take stakes in Venezuela’s hitherto nationalized oil   
   industry. The law also limits the royalties Venezuela takes from its oil   
   to 30 percent. She has also allowed Washington to take control of oil   
   sales, while selling mostly to the US itself. Finally, Rodríguez has   
   agreed an amnesty for political prisoners. The US, for its part, has   
   agreed to let the regime continue to govern (minus Maduro, of course).   
   It is also, slowly, phasing out sanctions, allowing the oil to flow from   
   Venezuela and revenues to flow back.   
      
   What if, then, Operation Absolute Resolve was not a military operation,   
   but a way for both sides to do a deal while saving face? For the US to   
   remove sanctions without looking as if it was admitting failure; for   
   Venezuela to do business with the US on Washington’s terms without   
   appearing to cave.   
      
   This fits Baudrillard’s definition of virtual war almost perfectly.   
   Something else masquerading as war. The US military, for the most part,   
   not engaging directly with enemy soldiers, about whose fate almost   
   nothing is known. No agreed figure for the number of enemy combatants   
   killed during Absolute Resolve exists: conflicting reports suggest as   
   many as 75 pro-Maduro soldiers died, including 32 Cubans.   
      
   The only understanding of the operation widely available comes through   
   the medium of lurid, propagandistic imagery made possible by modern   
   technology and woven together to create a simulacrum of war.   
   Super-soldiers and secret sonic weapons; “a fighter jet for every   
   possible situation” and viral amateur footage of every possible   
   detonation. We were given no pause for thought before being whirled from   
   “virtual war” to “virtual diplomacy.” On January 3, shortly after the   
   announcement of the capture of Maduro, Katie Miller – wife of White   
   House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller – posted on X an image of   
   Greenland covered with an American flag, captioned “SOON.”   
      
   Between January 5 and January 7, President Trump said in interviews that   
   acquiring Greenland was a national security priority to deter   
   adversaries in the Arctic. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt   
   said the President had “made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a   
   national security priority of the United States.” By January 9, Trump   
   had explicitly threatened action: “We are going to do something on   
   Greenland whether they like it or not.” He added: “I would like to make   
   a deal the easy way, but if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to   
   do it the hard way.”   
      
   As late as January 14, as the party started in Davos, President Trump   
   was still refusing to rule out military action to “take” Greenland. On   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)