From: Wilson@nowhere.invalid   
      
   On 2/7/2026 3:38 PM, Julian wrote:   
   >  From the very start, there was something weird about Operation Absolute   
   > Resolve. The official story went something like this: after a whirlwind   
   > air attack, which included the use of suicide drones for the first time,   
   > special operators from the US Army’s renowned but shadowy SFOD-D unit   
   > (“Delta Force”) were helicoptered into the Fuerte Tiuna military complex   
   > in the south of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. They defeated the   
   > local garrison, used “massive blowtorches” to breach heavy metal doors   
   > in a fortress-like residential site within the base, captured the   
   > President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, then spirited them   
   > back to the helicopters and flew them out to face charges in the United   
   > States. Donald Trump said it had been “an assault like people have not   
   > seen since World War Two.”   
   >   
   > It was certainly a bravura operation. But was it real? The suppression   
   > of enemy air-defense operations, which usually precedes such assaults,   
   > lasted for barely half an hour. A shock, then, but not much awe.   
   > Military facilities were left untouched. Despite, in President Trump’s   
   > words, the Venezuelans knowing that the US had been coming “for months,”   
   > many surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems were left exposed; others   
   > showed no signs of dispersal.   
   >   
   > More puzzling, the helicopters of the US Army’s 160th Special Operations   
   > Aviation Regiment were able to get to the drop-off point, loiter near   
   > Caracas for two hours, return to the drop-off point for extraction, and   
   > then fly out unscathed. Not one of Venezuela’s hundreds of Soviet/   
   > Russian Igla portable SAM systems – used to devastating effect against   
   > rotary aircraft in India, Iraq, Rwanda, Chechnya, Peru, Libya, Syria and   
   > Ukraine – appears to have been fired.   
   >   
   > There was, then, very little, if any, opposition. Nor was there much   
   > evidence that the US military had done much to suppress enemy   
   > combatants. President Trump, for his part, claimed the operation had   
   > used secret sonic weaponry: “The Discombobulator. I’m not allowed to   
   > talk about it.” Anti-US commentators suggested skullduggery among   
   > disloyal and venal elements within the Venezuelan regime and military   
   > hierarchy.   
   >   
   > What really happened here? Was it real or theater? Or was it all an   
   > example of what the French philosopher and sociologist Jean Baudrillard   
   > called “virtual war?”   
   >   
   > The historian Niall Ferguson is a proponent of using alternative history   
   > to explore such questions. Let’s do the same. The point of departure in   
   > our imaginary January 2026 scenario comes a little before President   
   > Trump gives the go-order for Absolute Resolve. US national security   
   > advisors explain the situation. “As you know, Mr. President, Venezuela   
   > has been under sanctions for decades. These have crippled the economy   
   > without precipitating regime change. In fact, emigration flows have   
   > acted as a force for self-selection, removing many of those who might   
   > support a new regime. You have brilliantly ramped up the pressure since   
   > returning to the White House, but even this has not worked. We both know   
   > that while we would undoubtedly win a war, it could also be messy and   
   > costly for us. Perhaps, Mr. President, it is time for you to do what you   
   > do best: make a deal.”   
   >   
   > The US would certainly have had leverage to strike a good bargain.   
   > First, the carrot. Removing the sanctions would offer Venezuela a   
   > tremendous economic boost, even accounting for the grotesque   
   > inefficiencies of Chavismo economics. Plus elites could get rich in the   
   > process. Secondly, the big stick. Even if an invasion would be costly to   
   > the US, it would be devastating for Venezuela. Senior members of the   
   > governing regime and military would be lucky to escape with their lives   
   > – and they would know it.   
   >   
   > How does this alternative reality differ from what is happening in   
   > Venezuela? Not much. The country’s acting President, Delcy Rodríguez,   
   > has signed into law legislation to allow privately owned and foreign   
   > companies to take stakes in Venezuela’s hitherto nationalized oil   
   > industry. The law also limits the royalties Venezuela takes from its oil   
   > to 30 percent. She has also allowed Washington to take control of oil   
   > sales, while selling mostly to the US itself. Finally, Rodríguez has   
   > agreed an amnesty for political prisoners. The US, for its part, has   
   > agreed to let the regime continue to govern (minus Maduro, of course).   
   > It is also, slowly, phasing out sanctions, allowing the oil to flow from   
   > Venezuela and revenues to flow back.   
   >   
   > What if, then, Operation Absolute Resolve was not a military operation,   
   > but a way for both sides to do a deal while saving face? For the US to   
   > remove sanctions without looking as if it was admitting failure; for   
   > Venezuela to do business with the US on Washington’s terms without   
   > appearing to cave.   
   >   
   > This fits Baudrillard’s definition of virtual war almost perfectly.   
   > Something else masquerading as war. The US military, for the most part,   
   > not engaging directly with enemy soldiers, about whose fate almost   
   > nothing is known. No agreed figure for the number of enemy combatants   
   > killed during Absolute Resolve exists: conflicting reports suggest as   
   > many as 75 pro-Maduro soldiers died, including 32 Cubans.   
   >   
   > The only understanding of the operation widely available comes through   
   > the medium of lurid, propagandistic imagery made possible by modern   
   > technology and woven together to create a simulacrum of war. Super-   
   > soldiers and secret sonic weapons; “a fighter jet for every possible   
   > situation” and viral amateur footage of every possible detonation. We   
   > were given no pause for thought before being whirled from “virtual war”   
   > to “virtual diplomacy.” On January 3, shortly after the announcement of   
   > the capture of Maduro, Katie Miller – wife of White House Deputy Chief   
   > of Staff Stephen Miller – posted on X an image of Greenland covered with   
   > an American flag, captioned “SOON.”   
   >   
   > Between January 5 and January 7, President Trump said in interviews that   
   > acquiring Greenland was a national security priority to deter   
   > adversaries in the Arctic. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt   
   > said the President had “made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a   
   > national security priority of the United States.” By January 9, Trump   
   > had explicitly threatened action: “We are going to do something on   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)