From: julianlzb87@gmail.com   
      
   We gotta win the midterms,” President Donald Trump told the crowd in   
   Iowa at the end of last month. “I’m here because we’re starting the   
   campaign to win the midterms. That means Senate and it means House.”   
      
   Trump is, by all accounts, obsessed with the upcoming elections in   
   November. Having been distracted by various foreign dramas, and seeing   
   his approval ratings dip, the President aims to pivot back to a domestic   
   mission in 2026.   
      
   Trump understands the stakes, hence choosing Iowa, the traditional   
   starting place for presidential primaries, to launch this campaign. The   
   final two years of his presidency hinge on the outcome of these   
   elections. He sees that, without a congressional majority in both   
   houses, his political revolution will stall or even be reversed. If the   
   Democrats capture the House, Trump would almost certainly face another   
   round of noisy congressional battles and, quite likely, impeachment.   
   That would drown out the revolutionary tempo of his second   
   administration – a repeat of the relentless Democrat-led scuppering of   
   his first term, only with added venom.   
      
   Trump’s plan is to focus on what voters care about most: the economy. At   
   the Iowa rally, a large banner above the President read: “LOWER PRICES,   
   BIGGER PAYCHECKS.” He brags relentlessly about having lowered the cost   
   of gas and is busy hyping a series of policies designed to make   
   Americans feel good about their finances. There’s the $1,000 “Trump   
   Account” for every child born in the US between January 1, 2025 and   
   December 2028 and, perhaps soon, a $2,000 “tariff dividend” for every   
   American taxpayer. Moreover, if Trump’s new nominee Kevin Warsh is   
   installed as chairman of the Federal Reserve in May, he may well get   
   those feel-good interest rate cuts he so badly wants.   
      
   At the same time, the Democrats are increasingly confident that, for all   
   Trump’s salesmanship skills, lingering cost-of-living pain and anxieties   
   about the impacts of his erratic tariff system will ensure victory for   
   their party. They believe a giant blue wave could soon drown out Trump’s   
   legacy once and for all. The latest Fox poll supports such a view: only   
   20 percent of respondents felt Trump’s economic policies had “helped”;   
   43 percent said they had “hurt.”   
      
   Unfazed by her failure in 2024, Kamala Harris has launched a shiny new   
   youth mobilization organization, “Headquarters,” to build enthusiasm   
   ahead of the midterms.   
      
   Democrats are also thrilled at growing concerns about the uglier side of   
   Trump’s immigration policies. Immigration is supposed to be a winning   
   issue for Trump. His success in stopping illegal migration across the   
   southern border is popular. Mass deportations, however, are becoming   
   trickier to sell to the electorate. This is why, in the wake of last   
   month’s shooting of the anti-ICE protester Alex Pretti, Trump moved   
   quickly to put Tom Homan in charge of operations in Minnesota, while   
   defenestrating Border Patrol commander-at-large Gregory Bovino.   
      
   As November draws closer, Team Trump will emphasize how his strong   
   crackdown on migrants, and his broader assertion of law and order in   
   many American cities, has led to dramatic decreases in homicides and   
   violent crimes. Yet history and logic suggest that the odds must   
   strongly favor the Democrats. No one is certain about the Senate, where   
   the Republican majority is stronger but still vulnerable. In the House   
   of Representatives, however, where Republicans hold a vanishingly thin   
   majority, Trump’s mission looks almost impossible: since the 1930s, only   
   three presidents have seen their party gain House seats at midterm:   
   Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W.   
   Bush in 2002.   
      
   Yet Trump is blessed – if not yet with a golden economy, then with a   
   weakened and unpopular opposition. Today’s Democratic party is in hock   
   to an increasingly strident leftist ideology. For the first time since   
   its founding, Democrats now resemble a European socialist party, one   
   that stresses centralized control, heavy regulation, identity politics,   
   high taxes and income redistribution.   
      
   That orientation is a novel development for any major American party and   
   does not command majority support among the public. The Democrats lack a   
   positive agenda and the closest figure they have to a national leader is   
   not Harris but the arguably more detested Governor of California, Gavin   
   Newsom. His state was once a symbol of American growth and optimism; now   
   it is suffering outward migration for the first time since the Gold Rush   
   of 1849.   
      
   But the Democrats’ weakness is also their strength. Although the party   
   is muddled on core issues, the real glue that binds them these days is   
   their white-hot hatred of Donald Trump. Hatred is not too strong a word.   
   It motivates party activists, donors and especially core voters, who are   
   disproportionately important in midterm elections, when turnout is   
   typically low. It is this hatred of Trump that keeps true believers   
   marching through the bone-chilling cold of a Minneapolis winter. It   
   inspires them to vote for a socialist (some say communist) mayor of New   
   York who cannot pay for his airy promises and has never managed so much   
   as a two-car funeral.   
      
   While Democrats fear a reign of right-wing populism, Republicans fear an   
   irreversible slide into socialism, managed by a sclerotic Washington   
   bureaucracy. Notions of a “loyal opposition” are long forgotten. For the   
   party of Trump, the Democrats are accursed enemies. Truly evil. In such   
   a climate, even midterm elections can take on a kind of end-times   
   importance. Both sides are convinced that, if results don’t go their   
   way, the country could be finished.   
      
   If Democrats manage to retake the House, you can say goodbye to any new   
   legislation. It may pass the House but it won’t make it through the   
   Senate, which effectively requires super-majorities for all motions   
   except budget bills and nominations. If Democrat-led legislation does   
   somehow slither past that barrier, President Trump will veto it unless   
   he has signaled his approval before the votes. It’s a formula for   
   legislative stasis unless Trump magically reinvents himself as a unifier   
   in his last two years in office. Don’t bet on it.   
      
   This likely logjam will lead to a paradoxical result. The unilateral   
   power of the President will actually increase. Why? Because the only   
   power he has left is to act on his own, using executive orders and   
   directives. He is certain to use them extensively, which in turn will   
   lead to more resistance from a Democrat-led Congress. Few Americans   
   realize just how novel the president’s overweening executive power is.   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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