From: fedora@fea.st   
      
   On Fri, 13 Feb 2026 19:37:27 +0000, Julian    
   wrote:   
      
   >We gotta win the midterms,” President Donald Trump told the crowd in   
   >Iowa at the end of last month. “I’m here because we’re starting the   
   >campaign to win the midterms. That means Senate and it means House.”   
   >   
   >Trump is, by all accounts, obsessed with the upcoming elections in   
   >November. Having been distracted by various foreign dramas, and seeing   
   >his approval ratings dip, the President aims to pivot back to a domestic   
   >mission in 2026.   
   >   
   >Trump understands the stakes, hence choosing Iowa, the traditional   
   >starting place for presidential primaries, to launch this campaign. The   
   >final two years of his presidency hinge on the outcome of these   
   >elections. He sees that, without a congressional majority in both   
   >houses, his political revolution will stall or even be reversed. If the   
   >Democrats capture the House, Trump would almost certainly face another   
   >round of noisy congressional battles and, quite likely, impeachment.   
   >That would drown out the revolutionary tempo of his second   
   >administration – a repeat of the relentless Democrat-led scuppering of   
   >his first term, only with added venom.   
   >   
   >Trump’s plan is to focus on what voters care about most: the economy. At   
   >the Iowa rally, a large banner above the President read: “LOWER PRICES,   
   >BIGGER PAYCHECKS.” He brags relentlessly about having lowered the cost   
   >of gas and is busy hyping a series of policies designed to make   
   >Americans feel good about their finances. There’s the $1,000 “Trump   
   >Account” for every child born in the US between January 1, 2025 and   
   >December 2028 and, perhaps soon, a $2,000 “tariff dividend” for every   
   >American taxpayer. Moreover, if Trump’s new nominee Kevin Warsh is   
   >installed as chairman of the Federal Reserve in May, he may well get   
   >those feel-good interest rate cuts he so badly wants.   
   >   
   >At the same time, the Democrats are increasingly confident that, for all   
   >Trump’s salesmanship skills, lingering cost-of-living pain and anxieties   
   >about the impacts of his erratic tariff system will ensure victory for   
   >their party. They believe a giant blue wave could soon drown out Trump’s   
   >legacy once and for all. The latest Fox poll supports such a view: only   
   >20 percent of respondents felt Trump’s economic policies had “helped”;   
   >43 percent said they had “hurt.”   
   >   
   >Unfazed by her failure in 2024, Kamala Harris has launched a shiny new   
   >youth mobilization organization, “Headquarters,” to build enthusiasm   
   >ahead of the midterms.   
   >   
   >Democrats are also thrilled at growing concerns about the uglier side of   
   >Trump’s immigration policies. Immigration is supposed to be a winning   
   >issue for Trump. His success in stopping illegal migration across the   
   >southern border is popular. Mass deportations, however, are becoming   
   >trickier to sell to the electorate. This is why, in the wake of last   
   >month’s shooting of the anti-ICE protester Alex Pretti, Trump moved   
   >quickly to put Tom Homan in charge of operations in Minnesota, while   
   >defenestrating Border Patrol commander-at-large Gregory Bovino.   
   >   
   >As November draws closer, Team Trump will emphasize how his strong   
   >crackdown on migrants, and his broader assertion of law and order in   
   >many American cities, has led to dramatic decreases in homicides and   
   >violent crimes. Yet history and logic suggest that the odds must   
   >strongly favor the Democrats. No one is certain about the Senate, where   
   >the Republican majority is stronger but still vulnerable. In the House   
   >of Representatives, however, where Republicans hold a vanishingly thin   
   >majority, Trump’s mission looks almost impossible: since the 1930s, only   
   >three presidents have seen their party gain House seats at midterm:   
   >Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W.   
   >Bush in 2002.   
   >   
   >Yet Trump is blessed – if not yet with a golden economy, then with a   
   >weakened and unpopular opposition. Today’s Democratic party is in hock   
   >to an increasingly strident leftist ideology. For the first time since   
   >its founding, Democrats now resemble a European socialist party, one   
   >that stresses centralized control, heavy regulation, identity politics,   
   >high taxes and income redistribution.   
   >   
   >That orientation is a novel development for any major American party and   
   >does not command majority support among the public. The Democrats lack a   
   >positive agenda and the closest figure they have to a national leader is   
   >not Harris but the arguably more detested Governor of California, Gavin   
   >Newsom. His state was once a symbol of American growth and optimism; now   
   >it is suffering outward migration for the first time since the Gold Rush   
   >of 1849.   
   >   
   >But the Democrats’ weakness is also their strength. Although the party   
   >is muddled on core issues, the real glue that binds them these days is   
   >their white-hot hatred of Donald Trump. Hatred is not too strong a word.   
   >It motivates party activists, donors and especially core voters, who are   
   >disproportionately important in midterm elections, when turnout is   
   >typically low. It is this hatred of Trump that keeps true believers   
   >marching through the bone-chilling cold of a Minneapolis winter. It   
   >inspires them to vote for a socialist (some say communist) mayor of New   
   >York who cannot pay for his airy promises and has never managed so much   
   >as a two-car funeral.   
   >   
   >While Democrats fear a reign of right-wing populism, Republicans fear an   
   >irreversible slide into socialism, managed by a sclerotic Washington   
   >bureaucracy. Notions of a “loyal opposition” are long forgotten. For the   
   >party of Trump, the Democrats are accursed enemies. Truly evil. In such   
   >a climate, even midterm elections can take on a kind of end-times   
   >importance. Both sides are convinced that, if results don’t go their   
   >way, the country could be finished.   
   >   
   >If Democrats manage to retake the House, you can say goodbye to any new   
   >legislation. It may pass the House but it won’t make it through the   
   >Senate, which effectively requires super-majorities for all motions   
   >except budget bills and nominations. If Democrat-led legislation does   
   >somehow slither past that barrier, President Trump will veto it unless   
   >he has signaled his approval before the votes. It’s a formula for   
   >legislative stasis unless Trump magically reinvents himself as a unifier   
   >in his last two years in office. Don’t bet on it.   
   >   
   >This likely logjam will lead to a paradoxical result. The unilateral   
   >power of the President will actually increase. Why? Because the only   
   >power he has left is to act on his own, using executive orders and   
   >directives. He is certain to use them extensively, which in turn will   
   >lead to more resistance from a Democrat-led Congress. Few Americans   
      
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