From: tsm@fastmail.ca   
      
   On Feb 13, 2026 at 2:55:03 PM EST, "Noah Sombrero"  wrote:   
      
   > On Fri, 13 Feb 2026 19:37:27 +0000, Julian    
   > wrote:   
   >   
   >> We gotta win the midterms,” President Donald Trump told the crowd in   
   >> Iowa at the end of last month. “I’m here because we’re starting the   
   >> campaign to win the midterms. That means Senate and it means House.”   
   >>   
   >> Trump is, by all accounts, obsessed with the upcoming elections in   
   >> November. Having been distracted by various foreign dramas, and seeing   
   >> his approval ratings dip, the President aims to pivot back to a domestic   
   >> mission in 2026.   
   >>   
   >> Trump understands the stakes, hence choosing Iowa, the traditional   
   >> starting place for presidential primaries, to launch this campaign. The   
   >> final two years of his presidency hinge on the outcome of these   
   >> elections. He sees that, without a congressional majority in both   
   >> houses, his political revolution will stall or even be reversed. If the   
   >> Democrats capture the House, Trump would almost certainly face another   
   >> round of noisy congressional battles and, quite likely, impeachment.   
   >> That would drown out the revolutionary tempo of his second   
   >> administration – a repeat of the relentless Democrat-led scuppering of   
   >> his first term, only with added venom.   
   >>   
   >> Trump’s plan is to focus on what voters care about most: the economy. At   
   >> the Iowa rally, a large banner above the President read: “LOWER PRICES,   
   >> BIGGER PAYCHECKS.” He brags relentlessly about having lowered the cost   
   >> of gas and is busy hyping a series of policies designed to make   
   >> Americans feel good about their finances. There’s the $1,000 “Trump   
   >> Account” for every child born in the US between January 1, 2025 and   
   >> December 2028 and, perhaps soon, a $2,000 “tariff dividend” for every   
   >> American taxpayer. Moreover, if Trump’s new nominee Kevin Warsh is   
   >> installed as chairman of the Federal Reserve in May, he may well get   
   >> those feel-good interest rate cuts he so badly wants.   
   >>   
   >> At the same time, the Democrats are increasingly confident that, for all   
   >> Trump’s salesmanship skills, lingering cost-of-living pain and anxieties   
   >> about the impacts of his erratic tariff system will ensure victory for   
   >> their party. They believe a giant blue wave could soon drown out Trump’s   
   >> legacy once and for all. The latest Fox poll supports such a view: only   
   >> 20 percent of respondents felt Trump’s economic policies had “helped”;   
   >> 43 percent said they had “hurt.”   
   >>   
   >> Unfazed by her failure in 2024, Kamala Harris has launched a shiny new   
   >> youth mobilization organization, “Headquarters,” to build enthusiasm   
   >> ahead of the midterms.   
   >>   
   >> Democrats are also thrilled at growing concerns about the uglier side of   
   >> Trump’s immigration policies. Immigration is supposed to be a winning   
   >> issue for Trump. His success in stopping illegal migration across the   
   >> southern border is popular. Mass deportations, however, are becoming   
   >> trickier to sell to the electorate. This is why, in the wake of last   
   >> month’s shooting of the anti-ICE protester Alex Pretti, Trump moved   
   >> quickly to put Tom Homan in charge of operations in Minnesota, while   
   >> defenestrating Border Patrol commander-at-large Gregory Bovino.   
   >>   
   >> As November draws closer, Team Trump will emphasize how his strong   
   >> crackdown on migrants, and his broader assertion of law and order in   
   >> many American cities, has led to dramatic decreases in homicides and   
   >> violent crimes. Yet history and logic suggest that the odds must   
   >> strongly favor the Democrats. No one is certain about the Senate, where   
   >> the Republican majority is stronger but still vulnerable. In the House   
   >> of Representatives, however, where Republicans hold a vanishingly thin   
   >> majority, Trump’s mission looks almost impossible: since the 1930s, only   
   >> three presidents have seen their party gain House seats at midterm:   
   >> Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W.   
   >> Bush in 2002.   
   >>   
   >> Yet Trump is blessed – if not yet with a golden economy, then with a   
   >> weakened and unpopular opposition. Today’s Democratic party is in hock   
   >> to an increasingly strident leftist ideology. For the first time since   
   >> its founding, Democrats now resemble a European socialist party, one   
   >> that stresses centralized control, heavy regulation, identity politics,   
   >> high taxes and income redistribution.   
   >>   
   >> That orientation is a novel development for any major American party and   
   >> does not command majority support among the public. The Democrats lack a   
   >> positive agenda and the closest figure they have to a national leader is   
   >> not Harris but the arguably more detested Governor of California, Gavin   
   >> Newsom. His state was once a symbol of American growth and optimism; now   
   >> it is suffering outward migration for the first time since the Gold Rush   
   >> of 1849.   
   >>   
   >> But the Democrats’ weakness is also their strength. Although the party   
   >> is muddled on core issues, the real glue that binds them these days is   
   >> their white-hot hatred of Donald Trump. Hatred is not too strong a word.   
   >> It motivates party activists, donors and especially core voters, who are   
   >> disproportionately important in midterm elections, when turnout is   
   >> typically low. It is this hatred of Trump that keeps true believers   
   >> marching through the bone-chilling cold of a Minneapolis winter. It   
   >> inspires them to vote for a socialist (some say communist) mayor of New   
   >> York who cannot pay for his airy promises and has never managed so much   
   >> as a two-car funeral.   
   >>   
   >> While Democrats fear a reign of right-wing populism, Republicans fear an   
   >> irreversible slide into socialism, managed by a sclerotic Washington   
   >> bureaucracy. Notions of a “loyal opposition” are long forgotten. For the   
   >> party of Trump, the Democrats are accursed enemies. Truly evil. In such   
   >> a climate, even midterm elections can take on a kind of end-times   
   >> importance. Both sides are convinced that, if results don’t go their   
   >> way, the country could be finished.   
   >>   
   >> If Democrats manage to retake the House, you can say goodbye to any new   
   >> legislation. It may pass the House but it won’t make it through the   
   >> Senate, which effectively requires super-majorities for all motions   
   >> except budget bills and nominations. If Democrat-led legislation does   
   >> somehow slither past that barrier, President Trump will veto it unless   
   >> he has signaled his approval before the votes. It’s a formula for   
   >> legislative stasis unless Trump magically reinvents himself as a unifier   
   >> in his last two years in office. Don’t bet on it.   
   >>   
      
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