XPost: alt.music.gossip, sac.politics, talk.politics.guns   
   XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh   
   From: drooler@gmail.com   
      
   Old songs now represent 70 percent of the U.S. music market. Even worse:   
   The new-music market is actually shrinking.   
      
   About the author: Ted Gioia writes the music and popular-culture   
   newsletter The Honest Broker on Substack. He is also the author of 11   
   books, including, most recently, Music: A Subversive History.   
      
   Old songs now represent 70 percent of the U.S. music market, according to   
   the latest numbers from MRC Data, a music-analytics firm. Those who make a   
   living from new music—especially that endangered species known as the   
   working musician—should look at these figures with fear and trembling. But   
   the news gets worse: The new-music market is actually shrinking. All the   
   growth in the market is coming from old songs.   
      
   U.S Catalog vs. Current Consumption   
   Source: MRC Data   
   The 200 most popular new tracks now regularly account for less than 5   
   percent of total streams. That rate was twice as high just three years   
   ago. The mix of songs actually purchased by consumers is even more tilted   
   toward older music. The current list of most-downloaded tracks on iTunes   
   is filled with the names of bands from the previous century, such as   
   Creedence Clearwater Revival and The Police.   
      
   I encountered this phenomenon myself recently at a retail store, where the   
   youngster at the cash register was singing along with Sting on “Message in   
   a Bottle” (a hit from 1979) as it blasted on the radio. A few days   
   earlier, I had a similar experience at a local diner, where the entire   
   staff was under 30 but every song was more than 40 years old. I asked my   
   server: “Why are you playing this old music?” She looked at me in surprise   
   before answering: “Oh, I like these songs.”   
      
   Never before in history have new tracks attained hit status while   
   generating so little cultural impact. In fact, the audience seems to be   
   embracing the hits of decades past instead. Success was always short-lived   
   in the music business, but now even new songs that become bona fide hits   
   can pass unnoticed by much of the population.   
      
   Only songs released in the past 18 months get classified as “new” in the   
   MRC database, so people could conceivably be listening to a lot of two-   
   year-old songs, rather than 60-year-old ones. But I doubt these old   
   playlists consist of songs from the year before last. Even if they did,   
   that fact would still represent a repudiation of the pop-culture industry,   
   which is almost entirely focused on what’s happening right now.   
      
   Every week I hear from hundreds of publicists, record labels, band   
   managers, and other professionals who want to hype the newest new thing.   
   Their livelihoods depend on it. The entire business model of the music   
   industry is built on promoting new songs. As a music writer, I’m expected   
   to do the same, as are radio stations, retailers, DJs, nightclub owners,   
   editors, playlist curators, and everyone else with skin in the game. Yet   
   all the evidence indicates that few listeners are paying attention.   
      
   Consider the recent reaction when the Grammy Awards were postponed.   
   Perhaps I should say the lack of reaction, because the cultural response   
   was little more than a yawn. I follow thousands of music professionals on   
   social media, and I didn’t encounter a single expression of annoyance or   
   regret that the biggest annual event in new music had been put on hold.   
   That’s ominous.   
      
   Can you imagine how angry fans would be if the Super Bowl or NBA Finals   
   were delayed? People would riot in the streets. But the Grammy Awards go   
   missing in action, and hardly anyone notices.   
      
   The declining TV audience for the Grammy show underscores this shift. In   
   2021, viewership for the ceremony collapsed 53 percent from the previous   
   year—from 18.7 million to 8.8 million. It was the least-watched Grammy   
   broadcast of all time. Even the core audience for new music couldn’t be   
   bothered—about 98 percent of people ages 18 to 49 had something better to   
   do than watch the biggest music celebration of the year.   
      
   A decade ago, 40 million people watched the Grammy Awards. That’s a   
   meaningful audience, but now the devoted fans of this event are starting   
   to resemble a tiny subculture. More people pay attention to streams of   
   video games on Twitch (which now gets 30 million daily visitors) or the   
   latest reality-TV show. In fact, musicians would probably do better   
   getting placement in Fortnite than signing a record deal in 2022. At least   
   they would have access to a growing demographic.   
      
   More people watch the Great British Bake Off than the Grammy Awards   
   Source: Nielsen/Media Reports   
   Some would like to believe that this trend is just a short-term blip,   
   perhaps caused by the pandemic. When clubs open up again, and DJs start   
   spinning new records at parties, the world will return to normal, or so   
   we’re told. The hottest songs will again be the newest songs. I’m not so   
   optimistic.   
      
   Read: Why aren’t there more women working in audio?   
      
   A series of unfortunate events are conspiring to marginalize new music.   
   The pandemic is one of these ugly facts, but hardly the only contributor   
   to the growing crisis.   
      
   Consider these other trends:   
      
   The leading area of investment in the music business is old songs.   
   Investment firms are getting into bidding wars to buy publishing catalogs   
   from aging rock and pop stars.   
   The song catalogs in most demand are by musicians who are in their 70s or   
   80s (Bob Dylan, Paul Simon, Bruce Springsteen) or already dead (David   
   Bowie, James Brown).   
   Even major record labels are participating in the rush to old music:   
   Universal Music, Sony Music, Warner Music, and others are buying up   
   publishing catalogs and investing huge sums in old tunes. In a previous   
   time, that money would have been used to launch new artists.   
   The best-selling physical format in music is the vinyl LP, which is more   
   than 70 years old. I’ve seen no signs that the record labels are investing   
   in a newer, better alternative—because, here too, old is viewed as   
   superior to new.   
   In fact, record labels—once a source of innovation in consumer   
   products—don’t spend any money on research and development to revitalize   
   their business, although every other industry looks to innovation for   
   growth and consumer excitement.   
   Record stores are caught up in the same time warp. In an earlier era, they   
   aggressively marketed new music, but now they make more money from vinyl   
   reissues and used LPs.   
   Radio stations are contributing to the stagnation, putting fewer new songs   
   into their rotation, or—judging by the offerings on my satellite-radio   
   lineup—completely ignoring new music in favor of old hits.   
   When a new song overcomes these obstacles and actually becomes a hit, the   
   risk of copyright lawsuits is greater than ever before. The risks have   
   increased enormously since the “Blurred Lines” jury decision of 2015, and   
   the result is that additional cash gets transferred from today’s musicians   
   to old (or deceased) artists.   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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