[continued from previous message]   
      
   Other building owners are asking the city to cut their tax bills on the   
   grounds that their buildings have lost much of their value—as much as   
   half, in some cases.   
      
   It’s not unusual for landlords to ask for revisions to their tax bills in   
   an economic downturn. But the pandemic’s impact on real estate was   
   dramatic enough that the city’s assessor-recorder, Joaquin Torres, took   
   the step of surveying property owners and calculating a temporary property   
   value reduction of $2.89 billion, out of $328.5 billion in total assessed   
   value, in the last fiscal year. He said it’s too soon to know what the   
   longer-term impact will be.   
      
   “We just don’t know yet,” Torres said. “It's a wait-and-see approach right   
   now as we continue to defend the values that we have.”   
      
   The Prop. 13 Effect   
   The pandemic has already eroded the city’s business and sales taxes, both   
   of which are reliant on downtown commuters. A hit to the city’s biggest   
   source of tax revenue—property taxes—could be even more devastating.   
      
   Because of Prop. 13, San Francisco has some protection from a sudden   
   collapse in property tax revenue. That 1978 law, which limited when   
   properties can be reassessed for tax purposes to the point of sale and   
   restricted annual appreciation to 2%, has the effect of stabilizing   
   property tax rolls in a downturn.   
      
   Older buildings—even ones worth tens of millions at market prices—can pay   
   taxes based on decades-old valuations. By contrast, newer towers spun up   
   or sold during the last decade’s development frenzy contribute staggering   
   sums to the city’s rolls, helping to drive property tax revenue in the   
   city’s general fund north of $2.3 billion in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.   
      
   But no one seems to have clear answers on what the pandemic will do to   
   that cash cow. And the city’s own forecasts are looking increasingly out   
   of step with reality as tech’s remote-dominant office culture metastasizes   
   into a state of permanence.   
      
   The city’s most recent budget forecasts estimate that office workers will   
   telecommute 33% of the time when an in-person return to the office   
   stabilizes.???? That number seems strikingly optimistic compared to data   
   from key card company Kastle Systems indicating that SF’s downtown offices   
   are only about 30% full.   
      
   Rose suggested that the infusion of federal stimulus funds during the   
   pandemic may have lulled city leaders into a false sense of financial   
   security.   
      
   “The city didn’t have to fire anybody and there wasn’t so much immediate   
   pain felt,” Rose said. “There’s a propensity to say, don’t make it worse   
   than it is.”   
      
   Heads in the Sand   
   Rose sees an inflection point when leases expire, buildings are revalued,   
   budgets are slashed and the problem can no longer be ignored.   
      
   The city’s budget office expects property tax revenues to continue to   
   grow. But Howard Chernick, an economics professor at Hunter College and   
   co-author of the report that forecast an up to 43% decline in SF’s   
   property values, paints a much worse picture: His team sees a decline of   
   up to 15% in property tax collections amounting to a roughly 4% drop in   
   total revenues.   
      
   Based on the most recent numbers, that would mean a decline of roughly   
   $240 million annually. And because tax revenues on average increased   
   steadily each year since the Great Recession, any drop could be painful   
   for a city that banks on growth to pay for an array of services and a   
   workforce of roughly 35,000.   
      
   Local legislators are only beginning to get their arms around the problem.   
   Supervisor Catherine Stefani sent a letter of inquiry asking budget   
   officials to quantify declining demand for commercial space, while   
   Supervisor Ahsha Safai plans to hold a hearing to brainstorm ways to bring   
   workers back downtown.   
      
   “Do we need to have an honest conversation about the current tax   
   structure?” said Safai. “We need to be putting everything on the table.”   
      
   Business and community groups are urging the city to take more action,   
   arguing that policymakers must drastically remake downtown into a hub for   
   arts, music and culture with outdoor spaces for visitors and commuters to   
   gather outside of offices.   
      
   But most of those ideas are firmly in the realm of the hypothetical, and   
   it’s unclear what may happen when they collide with the city’s   
   bureaucracy: For example, a $6 million budget allocation for the downtown-   
   focused Economic Core Recovery Program was subject to intense scrutiny by   
   the Board of Supervisors before its approval.   
      
   When compared to the investment that cities like New York or Chicago are   
   making to revitalize their downtowns, San Francisco’s effort barely   
   registers.   
      
   The city has much to lose as federal funds that fortified its budget   
   through the pandemic dry up. Some with a stake in downtown’s future are   
   worried that time is running out.   
      
   “It's within our power to stop or divert the train and meet it ahead of   
   its collision point,” said SF Chamber of Commerce CEO Rodney Fong. “But   
   that work has to start now, because the sooner you start it, the fewer   
   days of discomfort you're going to have.”   
      
   Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect ownership changes in   
   the properties at 25 Taylor St. and 1182 Market St.   
      
   Kevin Truong can be reached at kevin@sfstandard.com   
      
      
   --   
   "LOCKDOWN", left-wing COVID fearmongering.  95% of COVID infections   
   recover with no after effects.   
      
   No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.   
   Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.   
      
   Donald J. Trump, cheated out of a second term by fraudulent "mail-in"   
   ballots.  Report voter fraud: sf.nancy@mail.house.gov   
      
   Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden   
   fiasco, President Trump.   
      
   Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the   
   The World According To Garp.  Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood   
   queer liberal democrat donors.   
      
   President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed   
   dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)