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   XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.usa.republican, sac.politics   
   From: democrat-criminals@mail.house.gov   
      
   https://sfstandard.com/business/mayor-breed-sf-budget-officials-   
   acknowledge-remote-work-is-here-to-stay/   
      
   Mayor London Breed publicly acknowledged this week what many in San   
   Francisco already suspected: the work-from-home trend is here to stay.   
      
   “Life as we knew it before the pandemic is not going to go back,” Breed   
   said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “We thought people would miss   
   working around other people, but they do not.”   
      
   A newly released report from the Controller’s Office is one of the first   
   to grapple with the scale of the issue and its impact on San Francisco’s   
   economy.   
      
   In an interview, SF’s chief economist Ted Egan called the staying power of   
   remote work “a major shock” to the office market—and a potentially   
   permanent change to the city’s landscape.   
      
   “We wanted to make decision makers know that we in the Controller’s office   
   are aware of this phenomenon,” Egan said. “We don’t think that everyone’s   
   going to go back to work.”   
      
   The report focused on the ripple effects of vacant commercial real   
   estate—which makes up around 18% of assessed (or taxable) real estate   
   value in the city. Property taxes are San Francisco’s single largest   
   source of local tax revenue, contributing more than $2 billion to the   
   city’s general fund.   
      
   Permanent remote work “will impact virtually every aspect of San   
   Francisco’s economy,” the report states, noting that office-based   
   industries generate nearly 75% of the city’s GDP.   
      
   The budget analysts wrote the report in response to a letter of inquiry   
   from Sup. Catherine Stefani seeking to quantify plummeting demand for   
   commercial space. The supervisor plans to call a hearing in November for   
   further details on the findings.   
      
   “San Francisco’s downtown recovery is lagging behind almost every major   
   city in the country,” Stefani said. “We must be innovative and creative as   
   we adapt to these changes and plan for the future. We also must address   
   the public safety crisis we are facing—we cannot ask people to come back   
   while our streets are unsafe and unclean.”   
      
   Employers have generally acquiesced to employees’ desires for flexible   
   work arrangements, with nationwide surveys showing businesses planning to   
   allow remote work around 2.75 days per week on average. The SF Standard   
   Fall 2022 poll showed that most residents prefer to work in person only   
   some of the time, but are nonetheless worried about the state of Downtown.   
      
   Rising office vacancies will have a direct impact on office buildings’   
   expected incomes and, by extension, their property values. Researchers at   
   the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy estimated that SF’s   
   commercial property values could decline as much as 43% over the short   
   term.   
      
   Despite waning worries about the pandemic, office attendance remains low:   
   Back-to-office numbers from key-card access company Kastle Systems show   
   San Francisco hovering around 40%, near the bottom of the list of U.S.   
   cities. An analysis of foot traffic data by Placer.ai found that “the   
   office recovery essentially plateaued, with many employers settling on   
   some form of hybrid work.”   
      
   While commercial vacancy rates have risen across major cities nationally,   
   San Francisco is at the forefront of these trends with the largest rise in   
   office vacancy among major markets since the pandemic. Vacancy rates in   
   the third quarter rose to a record-breaking 24%.   
      
   Projections provided by JLL look even worse: The real estate firm   
   forecasts office vacancy in the city to stay between 19.5% and 25.3% by   
   2026. A “pessimistic” projection shows office vacancies peaking at 30.8%   
   by the end of 2023.   
      
   “Direct vacancy is growing really rapidly and it’s actually the sublease   
   market that’s remained kind of steady. That seems new to me and a little   
   bit ominous,” Egan said, noting that even the most optimistic projections   
   for vacancies are worse than the dot-com bust. “Any way you slice it, it’s   
   not a promising office market going forward for the next four to six   
   years.”   
      
   Prop. 13, which limits the growth of a property’s assessed value to 2%   
   increases, acts as a cushion for the city’s property tax revenue. But the   
   city doesn’t yet know how much protection it will offer from a drop in   
   property tax revenue.   
      
   The Controller’s Office is working on a model to estimate how far property   
   values can fall without a major hit to the city budget. Adding fuel to the   
   fire are higher interest rates, which would lower values of office   
   properties even without remote work.   
      
   “The fact that, until mid-2022, most of the city’s vacant space is on the   
   sublease market, and still generating rent for the building owners, is an   
   indication of the lag between a downturn in office demand, and a downturn   
   in property tax,” the report said.   
      
   While there are no hard numbers yet, budget analysts are operating under a   
   few key assumptions.   
      
   Those include instability in the office market because of the lack of an   
   established work-from-home routine, and a recognition that pre-pandemic   
   office attendance will not return.   
      
   While the report mostly focused on office vacancies and commercial   
   property tax revenue, Egan said the budget office is also working to   
   project the impact of remote work on residential property tax revenue.   
      
   There are already some signs of softening in San Francisco’s housing   
   market, including recent data showing the city’s housing prices falling   
   faster than the rest of the Bay Area.   
      
      
      
   --   
   "LOCKDOWN", left-wing COVID fearmongering.  95% of COVID infections   
   recover with no after effects.   
      
   No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.   
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   Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden   
   fiasco, President Trump.   
      
   Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the   
   The World According To Garp.  Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood   
   queer liberal democrat donors.   
      
   President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed   
   dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)