XPost: alt.politics.usa.republican, ca.politics, sac.politics
XPost: talk.politics.guns
From: pelosi-stench@sacbee.com
Kurt Nicklas wrote in news:sk4fa4$qce$7@news.dns-
netz.com:
> Jim McCron now spamming at bgeserver.de wrote
>
>> Democrats are economy killers.
California’s unemployment rate has remained above the national average,
and job growth in the state has been slowing. Predictions are that
conditions will get worse.
“The job growth in California already has slowed considerably in 2023 from
the previous two years, and it will continue to slow throughout 2023,”
said Michael Bernick, a former California Employment Development
Department director and now an employment attorney at Duane Morris LLP.
Later this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom plans to introduce a revised budget for
fiscal 2024, which begins July 1. A gloomier employment outlook could have
an impact on deficits and spending.
“Our view going into this budget process is to be mindful that we have
made a stronger recovery out of the COVID recession, but there are real
risks out here,” said H.D. Palmer, spokesperson for the Department of
Finance.
Unemployment is one of the bigger risks.
“The state’s economy is heavily dependent on real estate, technology,
agriculture and international trade. Unfortunately, all these sectors are
suffering downturns,” said Sung Won Sohn, president of SS Economics, a Los
Angeles-based consulting firm.
The path of both the state and national economy has been unusually
unpredictable. The Federal Reserve’s series of increases in key interest
rates over the last 14 months was designed to cool the economy and cut the
rate of inflation.
While prices have stopped rising at last summer’s sizzling pace, the
economy continues to perform fairly well. The national unemployment rate
last month hit 3.4%, its lowest level in 54 years.
California’s latest reported rate was 4.4% in March, the same rate as in
February. In March 2022 the rate was also 4.4%, but dropped slightly below
4% over the summer before climbing slowly again.
Bernick’s data show California averaged gains last year of over 51,000
jobs per month. While some unusual factors pushed January’s job growth to
96,700, it collapsed in February to about 21,800 and then 8,700 in March.
Bernick predicted a gain of about 25,000 jobs in April, but said “the
slowing growth will continue, as the high interest rates, high inflation,
business caution and declining consumer savings take effect.”
California employment has struggled to regain its pre-pandemic levels in
the leisure and hospitality industry, which provides about 2 million jobs.
March employment was slightly below levels in February 2020, the month
before the pandemic hit the sector hard.
The sluggish growth has been concentrated largely in the Bay area and Los
Angeles, said the UCLA Anderson School economic forecast in March.
It attributed the problem in part to the increase in remote work, which
has kept demand for restaurants and bars down. Fewer foreign tourists are
visiting, particularly from China.
The bigger risk to the state’s employment picture involves the broader
economy.
The state’s independent Legislative Analyst’s Office cited a “presently
heightened risk of recession” in its January report on the budget.
That warning came a week after Newsom proposed a $297 billion spending
plan for fiscal 2024 that included a $22.5 billion deficit. With the
economy and employment slowing, that deficit projection is expected to
grow when Newsom releases his revised budget Friday.
Fewer California jobs?
Since the economy depends heavily on technology, trade and agriculture, as
the economy slows analysts predict an impact on jobs.
“Technology was the backbone of the state’s economy, but layoffs are
mounting and demand for their products softening,” said Sohn.
Drought and floods have affected agriculture and related industries, he
said, and while California is a gateway for trade with Asian countries,
“both political and economic problems (related to Covid) with China have
slowed the Asian trade.”
But Somjita Mitra, California’s chief economist, said that a higher
unemployment rate is “not necessarily a bad thing.”
She said it could indicate people returning to the labor force and looking
for work. The state also has a more fluid economy in which workers switch
jobs more frequently.
After an unprecedented pace of job recovery coming out of the pandemic,
California’s unemployment has returned to a more “predictable level,” said
Mitra.
While tech companies such as Meta, Lyft and Salesforce have laid off tens
of thousands of employees in recent months, a relatively small number of
the total cuts have targeted Californians, Mitra said. Those who do live
here are expected to bounce back relatively quickly
“The workers themselves tend to be highly skilled, highly qualified and
highly compensated, so as a result, they tend to be highly desirable
workers,” Mitra said.
She added that “We’re monitoring very closely and if we start seeing some
long-term unemployment, then we will start worrying about the health of
the tech industry itself.”
Mitra cited other uncertainties, notably the fate of the federal debt
limit and the rate of inflation. President Joe Biden and congressional
leaders are deadlocked over how to raise the debt limit. The U.S. Treasury
estimates that around June 1, it could lack the funds to pay all the
government’s bills.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)
|
