XPost: alt.california, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.society.liberalism   
   XPost: talk.politics.guns   
   From: unqualified.black.cunt@splcenter.org   
      
   On 18 Sep 2021, Steve Cummings  posted some   
   news:si5lhi$37j$3@news.dns-netz.com:   
      
   > Wayne Autrey wrote   
   >   
   >> Newsom should have his balls cut off and stuffed down his throat.   
      
   Stocks started the week a bit mixed…as investors and markets await KEY   
   economic data this week……Regional banks which started out strong after   
   having been beaten up last week – ended up giving up those early gains.   
   PACW (PacWest) which was under severe pressure last week announced a   
   dividend CUT and that gave an early push to the stock (+30%) as investors   
   are betting that the cut in the dividend raises its odds of survival.   
   PACW lost much of those gains but did end the day up 3.7% but that was not   
   true of the broader group…the KBW regional banking index lost 2.8% on the   
   day and the KRE – S&P Regional Bank Index lost 2%.... ….as the nervousness   
   continues.   
      
   On Friday – JPM put out a note that said due to the recent volatility –   
   the regional banks were a ‘screaming’ buy (my words not exactly theirs –   
   but it is essentially the same thing).  On Friday they did rally nicely   
   but yesterday - concerns over what this weeks eco data will say along with   
   the nervousness over the lending environment and the possibility of a   
   longer and deeper recession gave investors a reason to be cautious.    In   
   the end – analysts are concerned that the primary risk is that small and   
   mid-sized sized businesses will lose borrowing power due to the ongoing   
   turmoil in the banking sector that will (and is) resulting in tighter   
   lending standards on top of everything else.   
      
   In fact – the FED put out an opinion survey of senior loan officers   
   yesterday and guess what it revealed?  YUP…Credit conditions are   
   ‘deteriorating’.   Last time I checked – ‘deteriorating’ was not seen as a   
   positive word in any context….so the algo’s did a 180 and sold them off.   
   Chicago FED President Austy Goolsbee told Yahoo Finance that he’s ‘getting   
   vibes’ of the beginning of a credit squeeze.  Think about that – ‘vibes of   
   a credit squeeze’.   
      
   At the end of the day – the Dow lost 56 pts, the S&P gained 2, the Nasdaq   
   added 21pts (putting it now in a new bull market – it is up 20% off the   
   December low), the Russell lost 6 pts while the Transports bot smushed –   
   down 108 pts or 0.8%.   
      
   Eco data this week is all about both the CPI and the PPI - tomorrow at   
   8:30 we are going to the latest CPI, and it is expected to show a m/m gain   
   of +0.4% - which is UP from 0.1% (I think I suggested that this was going   
   to happen – didn’t I?)  Y/y is expected to be flat at +5% (sticky).  And   
   if you take out Food and Energy – m/m is expected to be +0.3% while y/y is   
   expected to come in at +5.5% - both slightly lower than last month (0.1%   
   lower) – but that’s after you take out everything we need!  Food and   
   Energy!   
      
   And so, here is the issue – what will that cause the FED to say and do   
   now?  Recall that Friday’s NFP report was stronger and wages were   
   higher….and that is not what the FED wanted to see, so if the CPI suggests   
   that inflation is now at the ‘sticky’ point and is not continuing to   
   subside – then I would suggest that we are going to see one more hike in   
   June and that will get us to 5.25% - 5.5% - right where the inflation   
   figures remain stuck.  Remember – many economists and analysts have said   
   that the FED has to get the terminal rate ABOVE the inflation rate….and so   
   that is why it makes sense to me.  At the point – we will at least be AT   
   the level of inflation – not above but more importantly not below.   
      
   Then Thursday brings us the PPI – which is the producer price index – a   
   report that reveals what producers are paying for the raw material they   
   need to produce.  Now if you remember that stunning negative print last   
   month – PPI final demand fell by 0.5% (a stunner) – well that is not   
   supposed to be the case this month…PPI on the top line is expected to be   
   up 0.3% (a 0.8% swing) while PPI final demand y/y is expected to be +2.5%.   
   Once again if you take out food and energy – PPI is expected to be up 0.2%   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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