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   The freight transport sector has faced a volatile year, with a   
   series of bankruptcies as a result of diminished freight rates and a   
   lack of cargo as demand waned, but Lior Ron, CEO of Uber's logistics   
   subsidiary Uber Freight, says the freight recession may be at a new   
   "tipping point."   
      
   The reason is fuel prices.   
      
   Ron said Uber Freight is witnessing more carriers giving back lanes   
   after bids, which could be an indicator of carriers unable to afford   
   to run certain shipping routes.   
      
   "Low fuel prices earlier this year likely helped many carriers   
   manage through low rates, but increasing fuel costs may be a tipping   
   point for carriers operating with little to no margin," Ron said.   
      
   Shipper volumes are still down, and carrier rates are still   
   depressed. And so far in Q4, he said Uber's team has observed   
   carriers being more selective on the volume that they take in bids   
   to remain profitable. Shippers, meanwhile, are being more selective   
   on their carrier mix and have been leaning toward selecting carriers   
   they think are stable and provide good service, Ron said.   
      
   Oil prices have come down from their recent peak, and global   
   economic growth is projected to slow next year, but geopolitical   
   risks remain high, from the Russia-Ukraine war to the emerging   
   Israel-Hamas war in the Middle East. The World Bank warned in a   
   report on Tuesday that record high oil prices could be reached if   
   the conflict spreads beyond the Gaza Strip, and the price of crude   
   able to rise as high as $157. Bank of America recently released a   
   similar worst-case scenario forecast.   
      
   "Fraught with uncertainty" is how the International Energy Agency   
   recent described the conditions in the oil market.   
      
   The World Bank's baseline case assuming there is no oil shock would   
   result in an average price of $90 a barrel in the current quarter   
   before crude heads lower in 2024 to an $81 average amid slower   
   global growth.   
      
   Click here to view interactive content   
   The sharp decrease in freight rates and demand after the pandemic   
   boom contributed to the demise of venture-backed darling Convoy.   
   Flexport, another heavily funded logistics startup, recently had a   
   CEO shakeup and another round of layoffs in October affecting 20% of   
   its global workforce.   
      
   Global shipping container rates have dropped by more than half   
   compared to a year ago, and are now below the pre-pandemic rates of   
   2019.   
      
   "Numbers don't lie," Ron said. "If you look at the asset side, the   
   cost of managing a fleet is increasing and it's hard to escape that.   
   I believe the contract pressure will continue. The non-diversified   
   brokers and subscale, less financially sound players are feeling a   
   lot of pressure."   
      
   Convoy co-founder and CEO Dan Lewis cited the "massive freight   
   recession" in a memo to employees explaining its demise.   
      
   Uber Freight has had its own challenges this year. In February, it   
   issued a bearish outlook on the freight market after the company cut   
   approximately 150 jobs, 3% of its workforce. The company had a   
   second round of layoffs in July of between 40-50 employees.   
      
   As it navigates through the freight recession, Uber Freight is   
   doubling down on sustainability measures, which have been a focus   
   among VC-backed freight and logistics startups including Convoy.   
      
   Using data analytics, AI, and matching/routing solutions, Uber   
   Freight just released a sea-to-sky emissions dashboard to provide   
   full visibility and eliminate what's called, "empty miles," which   
   add to costs, delivery time and climate impact. The company hopes to   
   streamline the transit of freight which would cut down consumer   
   costs and increase transport productivity.   
      
   "So far we have been able to eliminate 2.4 million empty miles this   
   year," Ron said. "Clients are also transitioning freight to cheaper,   
   more sustainable options like intermodal," which involves moving   
   containers across a combination of transport options such as road,   
   rail and maritime.   
      
   Ron explained you can only reduce empty miles if you digitize the   
   entire supply chain.   
      
   "To achieve sustainability at scale, you need a diversified   
   portfolio," he said. "This is powered by technology, which runs   
   through all the segments of business."   
      
   Empty miles account for around 30% of U.S. trucking miles, according   
   to Uber Freight data, and the company estimates that empty miles can   
   be reduced to as much as 15% with routing and bundling technology.   
      
   "That translates into a 10-15% increase in income, not even   
   including the energy savings," Ron said. "Our goal is 80% clean   
      
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