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   Carolina has been in the top 10 for each of the past 21 years. All of   
   these states have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every   
   election since 2000. The red states of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Missouri   
   have also consistently been in the top 10 since 2004.   
      
   A handful of Biden states have as well, but not to the same degree as   
   Trump states. Maryland has been among the top 10 for 20 out of 21 years,   
   New Mexico for 16 years, and Georgia for 10 years. States often mentioned   
   in the media as crime havens, like California and New York, have not   
   graced the top 10 once. New York has never even been in the top 25 for   
   murder rates this century.   
      
   Between 2000 and 2010, red states and blue states roughly split the top   
   10, with four or five of the states being blue. But after 2010, murder   
   rates fell in blue states relative to red states. Beginning in 2011, red   
   states have held 7 or 8 spots in the top 10 every year.   
      
   The murder rate gap between Trump and Biden states has widened over the   
   course of two decades.   
      
   Murder rates in Trump states have been increasing at much higher rates   
   than Biden states. Back in 2000, murder rates in Trump states were 16%   
   higher and fell to a 9% gap in 2003 and 2004. By 2007, the Red State   
   murder gap reached 20% and would exceed 20% in every year but one   
   thereafter. In 2014, the Red State murder gap exceeded 30% for the first   
   time (32% in 2014) and would remain above that threshold throughout. The   
   Red State murder gap crossed the threshold of 40% in 2019, when murder   
   rates in Trump states were 44% higher than Biden states, before receding   
   slightly to 43% in 2020.   
      
   Over the period studied, murder rates jumped 39.4% in Trump-voting states   
   (6.35 murders/100,000 population in 2000 to 8.84/100,000 in 2020). Murder   
   rates increased just 13.4% in Biden-voting states (5.47 murders/100,000   
   population in 2000 to 6.20/100,000 in 2020).   
      
   Ironically, as the media frenzy over “soft on crime” Democrats reached its   
   peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest gulch, contrary to   
   the popular narrative.   
      
   Ironically, as the media frenzy over “soft on crime” Democrats reached its   
   peak, the Red State murder gap widened to its deepest gulch, contrary to   
   the popular narrative.   
      
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   Even when large cities are removed from red states, murder rates are still   
   higher.   
      
   Some on the right argue that murder rates in red states are higher because   
   of the blue cities in those red states. Of course, blue states have more   
   blue urban areas than red states. That is what makes most states blue. The   
   fact is that murder rates have increased in urban, suburban, and rural   
   areas.   
      
   But to answer these critics, we performed an exercise to give red states a   
   special boost. For this exercise, we removed all of the murders in the   
   county with the largest city for 19 of 25 red states. In six rural red   
   states home to no cities with large numbers of murders, this calculation   
   was not possible based on available CDC data.2 Blue states would get no   
   such advantage. But even with the largest city removed from red states,   
   the Red State murder gap persisted.   
      
   Over the course of the full 21 years between 2000 and 2020, the Red State   
   murder rate was still 12% higher than the Blue State murder rate, even   
   when murders in the largest cities in those red states were removed. And   
   the murder rate was still higher in 18 of 21 years.   
      
   Between 2010 and 2020, even after removing New Orleans and Jackson,   
   Louisiana and Mississippi continued to hold the number one and two spots   
   for highest murder rates. Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, and   
   Tennessee were still consistently in the top 10 after removing their   
   largest city.   
      
   In 2020, the states with the highest murder rates stayed roughly the same   
   after making this change: Mississippi in first, then Louisiana, Alabama,   
   South Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, Maryland, Arkansas, Tennessee, and   
   Georgia. Why are Murder Rates Persistently Higher in Red States?   
      
   Crime and murder are complicated issues that are, unfortunately, ripe for   
   demagoguery. This paper is not intended to provide definitive causes for   
   the growing and persistent Red State murder gap; rather it is meant to   
   show that it exists. But here are some thoughts on why red states have   
   higher murder rates.   
      
       Guns: Gun ownership rates are far higher in red states than blue   
       states. Studies have estimated that gun ownership rates are as much as   
       twice as high in a typical red state than a typical blue state. Since   
       79% of all homicides are committed with a firearm, it stands to reason   
       that more guns will produce more murders, not less. Poverty: Studies   
       have found a correlation between poverty and violent crime. Red states   
       tend to have higher poverty rates than blue states. Educational   
       Attainment: Those who have a high school diploma or less tend to be   
       overrepresented among victims and perpetrators of homicide.   
       Increasingly, there is an educational attainment gap between red and   
       blue states as well. Social Service and Police Resources: Despite   
       accusations that Democrats “defund the police,” we found that cities   
       with Democratic mayors fund police at far higher levels on a per   
       capita basis than cities run by Republican mayors. In 2020, the 25   
       largest Democrat-run cities spent 38% more on policing per capita than   
       the 25 largest Republican-run cities. In addition, blue states may be   
       more likely to fund social service programs that help steer people   
       away from violent crime than red states.   
      
   Conclusion   
      
   On a typical day, about 65 Americans are murdered. If we watch the cable   
   networks, we’re likely to hear about one of them. The one that is chosen   
   often fits a narrative that is as familiar as it is shallow. It may cohere   
   with a political point a network wants to make – chaos in Democratic   
   cities, an illegal immigrant committing a brazen and lethal act. Usually,   
   it’s a murder in New York City or Los Angeles, two cities that actually   
   have murder rates far lower than many states.   
      
   These crime stories aren’t inaccurate, but they are curated. And when we   
   see them every day they create an impression of crime and murder in   
   America that tells only a part of the story. When we released “The Red   
   State Murder Problem” in March 2022 showing that murder rates in   
   Trump-voting states in 2020 were far higher than Biden-voting states, the   
   reaction was incredulity. That is because the news stories we see each day   
   tell us something different.   
      
   But the numbers don’t lie. It is our hope that with this report we can   
   create a more accurate political discussion about crime. And perhaps with   
   a more holistic political discussion, we can do more to actually reduce   
   violent and lethal crime. Methodology   
      
   We collected murder data for all 50 states from 2000 to 2020. Our primary   
   source was the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for   
   Health Statistics Mortality Data. We chose to use CDC data over FBI data   
   because it tends to be more accurate. This is because states are required   
   to report mortality data to the CDC while states are only encouraged to   
   report crime data to the FBI. As mentioned above, there were four states   
   that were missing a few years of data in the CDC database. New Hampshire   
   was missing data for 2002, North Dakota was missing data for 2001, 2002,   
   and 2008, Vermont was missing data for 2002 and 2009-2013, and Wyoming was   
      
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