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   From: NOT-SURE@idiocracy.gov   
      
   On 10/22/22 10:17 PM, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:   
   > https://fortune.com/2022/10/21/longest-recession-spring-2024-elon-musk-   
   > silver-lining-global-financial-crisis-federal-reserve-company-   
   > bankruptcies/?itm_source=parsely-api   
   >   
   > The world could be facing the longest recession it has seen since the   
   > global financial crisis over a decade ago, according to Tesla and SpaceX   
   > CEO Elon Musk.   
   >   
   > Asked to predict the length of a contraction in economic activity, the   
   > world’s richest and most successful entrepreneur responded on Thursday:   
   > “probably until spring of ’24.”   
   >   
   > This would set the U.S. gross domestic product on course to shrink for a   
   > period longer than the 18-month recession of the global financial crisis,   
   > which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.   
   >   
   > Painful but necessary   
   > While these bouts are painful, Musk indicated they do serve the valuable   
   > purpose of shaking out bad business ideas by cleansing the market of so-   
   > called malinvestments.   
   >   
   > Such poor investments gradually build in the system during boom times, as   
   > capital chases increasingly marginal profits until the incremental returns   
   > no longer justify the risk.   
   >   
   > A key element factoring into investor calculations is the cost of money,   
   > which is set by policymakers at the world’s central banks. Until its   
   > recent shift to rate rises, the largest central bank—the U.S. Federal   
   > Reserve—had its foot on the accelerator pedal in an effort to suspend the   
   > normal dips of the economic cycle.   
   >   
   > It is no accident then that ever since June 2009 the U.S. economy has   
   > contracted only once, for two short months, according to the National   
   > Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the government agency that declares   
   > the official start and end dates of a recession.   
   >   
   > Ever since the global financial crisis, policymakers have pumped   
   > unprecedented stimulus into the system to prevent a recession, mainly in   
   > form of trillions of dollars of freshly created money but also through   
   > fiscal measures such as corporate tax cuts and pandemic checks.   
   >   
   > In such a cheap money environment, investors have been rewarded for   
   > withdrawing their savings and putting the money to work by backing new   
   > startups that promise to solve major social problems such as Theranos and   
   > Nikola Corp., or have innovative ideas like Juicero and Celsius.   
   >   
   > It’s these same kinds of companies that invariably suffer when cheap money   
   > dries up.   
   >   
   > Bill comes due   
   > Noninflationary economic growth is largely a function of productivity, and   
   > cannot be achieved through sustained money printing (although “modern   
   > monetary theory”—until recently fashionable in some circles—did   
   attempt to   
   > argue there was such a thing as a free lunch).   
   >   
   > Eventually the bill comes due, triggering a wave of insolvencies as weak   
   > managers run out of investors willing to finance their business plans.   
   >   
   > “Recessions do have a silver lining in that companies that shouldn’t   
   exist   
   > stop existing,” wrote Musk.   
   >   
   > Experts believe that point is upon us. After offering markets a buffet of   
   > nonstop cheap money, the Federal Reserve has now been forced into an   
   > abrupt reversal to cool off an overheating economy.   
   >   
   > Less than a week ago, the newest winner of the Nobel Prize in economics,   
   > Douglas Diamond, told Fortune that the U.S. central bank held rates “too   
   > low for too long” and now risked a crash.   
   >   
   > This year alone, the central bank hiked rates by three full percentage   
   > points, dramatically affecting asset prices for everything from stocks and   
   > housing to cryptocurrencies. As recently as the start of March, when   
   > policymakers knew inflation was running at 8%, the Fed was still expanding   
   > its balance sheet and with it the money supply.   
   >   
   > Elon Musk himself recently expressed his disdain for the Fed, agreeing   
   > with Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, who blasted Fed policymakers   
   > for making the biggest mistake in the institution’s 110-year history.   
   >   
   > “Siegel is obviously correct,” said Musk.   
   >   
   > Ironically one of those companies that might not have survived is Musk’s   
   > own. The CEO admitted back at the height of the stock market bubble that   
   > Tesla was “about a month” away from bankruptcy. The prime beneficiary of   
   > the 2020 pandemic rally might not have survived had it not been for the   
   > Fed’s decade-long period of ultralow interest rates and monetary stimulus.   
   >   
   >   
   2024 doesn't seem that long and recession doesn't seem that bad....   
      
      
   But it will be 2024 before we get rid of the Democrats in the White   
   House.... and it won't be an easy or quick recovery. While Musk seems   
   pretty bright for the most part, I tend to think he's hoping for the   
   best. But if you want to get closer to reality, pick a point between my   
   worst case scenario of much deeper and at least a decade of real   
   Depression and possibly two decades of really deep depression.   
      
   The problem is the politics NOT the American dream, and given we have 2   
   more years of falling off the cliff guaranteed before we can even begin   
   a turn around and hope for the end of this Depression to end it looks   
   far more likely that that two will turn into another 8 years of trying   
   to dig out of the hole the Democrat dropped us into.   
      
   It can easily take two terms of a really good President and a Congress   
   working with the President to get to a point where things get better NOT   
   worse.  The problem being that won't happen this election and the next   
   election two years from now would be the start of the correction at the   
   earliest but that's still unlikely which means that the earliest start   
   of a correction will be 4 years from now and that put's us in a box that   
   will take 4 years to 8 years of a Congress and Executive working to pull   
   us out of a 4 to 8 year deep depression.   
      
   And that can't happen without cutting the size and cost of the   
   Government and stopping the printing of money that has no value and   
   causes inflation. Which means the DEEP STATE and/or Shadow Government   
   will have to lose this civil war between the Government and WE THE   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)