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   From: o@o.org   
      
   Kazakhstan and 'the new great game'   
   By Federico Bordonaro   
      
   As energy-security matters gain center stage in world affairs, Kazakhstan's   
   geopolitical importance is on the rise. Although its past pro-Russian stance   
   hasn't been abandoned, Astana is playing a sophisticated game.   
      
   Well aware of its key economic and geostrategic role in Central Asia,   
   Kazakhstan is upgrading its partnership with the North Atlantic Treaty   
   Organization (NATO) and the European Union, while at the same time   
   maintaining good relations with China and Russia.   
      
   NATO and Kazakhstan: An evolving partnership   
   After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan's economy has attracted   
   large foreign investments, which coupled with rising oil revenues have   
   fostered a high gross domestic product (GDP) and the introduction of   
   economic reforms and privatizations much appreciated by Western financial   
   markets.   
      
   As the largest country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan has progressively   
   expanded its influence as a key player on the regional chessboard: the   
   United States sees it as an indispensable ally in the struggle against   
   Islamist terrorism; Moscow wants to co-opt it into a post-Soviet, Russia-led   
   political-economic structure; and China is obviously reinforcing its   
   influence in Central Asia, both economically and strategically.   
      
   Kashagan, located in the Kazakh waters of the Caspian Sea, is one of the   
   major oilfield discoveries of the past 30 years, and some analysts maintain   
   that it could hold anywhere from 10 billion to 30 billion barrels of crude -   
   a prospect that has been galvanizing the attention of EU countries in their   
   quest for energy security, with increasing investments aimed to establish a   
   strong Euro-Kazakh partnership.   
      
   In this framework, NATO is trying to upgrade its relationship with   
   Kazakhstan, which appears receptive to its offers to enhance its security   
   policy and independence.   
      
   January's news bulletin of the Kazakh Embassy in Washington reported that   
   Astana's cooperation with NATO "will be elevated to a new level following   
   the preparation of an individual partnership plan between the country and   
   the alliance".   
      
   "The document harmonizes all aspects of practical interaction and dialogue   
   between Kazakhstan and NATO," Kazakh Defense Minister Mukhtar Altynbaev said   
   at a press conference on January 13. Altynbaev made it clear that   
   "Kazakhstan does not have the objective of joining NATO. However, the   
   development of mutually beneficial military-technical and political   
   cooperation with the alliance will promote strategic security in the region   
   and guarantee support in tackling a broad range of pressing issues."   
      
   Kazakhstan has in fact been a member of a NATO-sponsored defense cooperation   
   initiative, the "Partnership for Peace" (PfP), since 1994. In 2002,   
   Kazakhstan joined the PfP Planning and Review Process (PARP). This framework   
   agreement foresees that its signatories undertake a series of economic,   
   political and military steps to harmonize their security and defense   
   policies with NATO planning, as well as making progress to democratize the   
   armed forces and upgrade the state's defense capabilities.   
      
   At the 2004 NATO summit in Istanbul, international terrorism, extremism, and   
   the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction were declared the three new   
   major threats to international security. To fight such perils effectively,   
   NATO officials clearly stated that the strengthening of the alliance's   
   cooperation with Central Asian and Caucasian states was crucial.   
   Accordingly, NATO quickly moved to adjust its administrative structures by   
   appointing a special representative for the Caucasus and Central Asia along   
   with two liaison officers, one for each regional bloc.   
      
   Europe's energy security   
   NATO members, and especially the European states, are in urgent need of   
   energy security. The Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan are therefore at the top of   
   their agenda, as a summit in Prague on February 24 made very clear.   
      
   Kevin Rosner, the conference's co-director, told the press that "the issue   
   of energy security, however you define it, [whether] from a producer or   
   consumer standpoint, is in many, many cases the most important   
   national-security issue facing both alliance members [and] partners". This   
   is even more true since the regular sabotage of oil pipelines in Iraq has   
   demonstrated how supplies can be disrupted at source.   
      
   As a consequence, Kazakhstan is set to play a bigger role in Europe's energy   
   security policy. Washington is supplying radars to both Azerbaijan and   
   Kazakhstan to monitor security in the fossil-energy-rich Caspian Sea, while   
   Poland has officially called upon NATO to play a collective role in   
   safeguarding its members' energy security.   
      
   The EU policy toward Kazakhstan has been centered on the Partnership and   
   Cooperation Agreement (PCA), signed in January 1995, which came into force   
   in 1999. In 2002, the two sides extended their ties to include energy and   
   transport issues, establishing a new Subcommittee on Justice and Home   
   Affairs (JHA). And in 2005, the sixth meeting of the Cooperation Committee   
   and the Cooperation Council took place.   
      
   According to official EU sources, the implementation of the PCA with Astana   
   is becoming "ever more important". In addition, the EU and Kazakhstan have   
   signed other bilateral agreements on steel-industry policies, nuclear safety   
   and nuclear-fusion research.   
      
   Once virtually unknown in Europe, Kazakhstan now sees its prominence in the   
   EU's geopolitical perceptions sharply increased. Since Georgia, Armenia and   
   Azerbaijan have all expressed an interest in eventually joining the European   
   Union, although the process appears a long and difficult one, the EU has   
   come to consider Kazakhstan a geopolitical continuation of its expanded   
   territory, and a key to securing the Caspian.   
      
   The new great game   
   While January's agreements with NATO were aimed at boosting cooperation on   
   science and technology, emergency civil planning, environmental protection   
   and anti-terrorism, it is obvious that Washington and Brussels are trying to   
   strengthen their political ties with Astana or, in other words, to smooth   
   the progress of Kazakhstan's more pro-Western orientation.   
      
   Two crucial aspects are becoming evident here. The first is that US and EU   
   attempts to stabilize the broader area, from the South Caucasus to   
   Kyrgyzstan, and promote a pro-Western Kazakhstan in particular, are likely   
   to come into conflict with long-standing Russian interests in the region.   
   The second is that Kazakhstan's foreign policy is aimed at maximizing its   
   own national interests, and not at pleasing one global player at the expense   
   of others.   
      
   In the post-1991 context of the end of Russian Empire, Moscow has shown its   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)