Forums before death by AOL, social media and spammers... "We can't have nice things"
|    alt.crime    |    Exploring the darker side of society    |    1,041 messages    |
[   << oldest   |   < older   |   list   |   newer >   |   newest >>   ]
|    Message 1,022 of 1,041    |
|    useapen to All    |
|    Eurostat's Nightmare: Warsaw Is Safer Th    |
|    26 Feb 26 09:15:42    |
      XPost: alt.society.liberalism, alt.politics.europe.misc, alt.pol       tics.immigration       XPost: talk.politics.guns, sac.politics       From: yourdime@outlook.com              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-31-03-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-1-1091x1536.jpg              Being a data-driven sort of feline, this seemed a bit of an unfair       comparison to me as it pits an urban area against a whole country, and as       such has the potential to embed a great deal of bias. Seeking to eliminate       this potential objection to the data and to make a more apples to apples       comparison, I first pulled data for Paris and Warsaw. I also added a       couple of additional categories (assault and rape), as these seemed like       core quality of life and safety sort of offenses.              After running that analysis, the point still stands that Paris appears far       more dangerous than comparable Polish cities.              The gap is no longer as large, but still remains highly significant.              Warsaw apprears noticably safer than Paris (this, and all other crime       data, is from 2023 Eurostat ICCS data)              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-31-35-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-2.jpg              This same relationship holds when comparing the whole of France to the       whole of Poland. Depending upon the category, crime rates are 2-7X higher       in France.              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-32-06-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-3-768x483.jpg              This got me wondering about how this might compare to some other       locations. As can be seen, London is considerably more dangerous than       Paris.              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-32-34-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-4-768x406.jpg              And we can pull this for a large number of cities and see this result       emerge in similar fashion. I added the largest city (by population) from a       number of other countries as well.              The results continue to be highly favorable for Warsaw, which looks, at       the margin, slightly safer even than Zurich, a city generally regarded as       “pretty fricking safe.”              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-33-20-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-5-768x321.jpg              One might quibble a little bit about the homicide rate in Warsaw, but it’s       worth realizing how low all these values are. San Diego, hardly a hotbed       of living dangerously, is more like 4 or 5 per 100k, so 1.15 in Warsaw is       nothing to lose sleep over. By American standards, there is very little       murder in Europe (or, at least, murder that is reported. Some argue about       this, and I have no high conviction view on whether and to what extent       this is an issue.)              This same relationship holds at national levels, so it is not a purely       urban phenomenon.              https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-       2026-02-21T16-34-12-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-6-768x351.jpg              Based on anecdotal evidence, I suspect these variances may have widened       since 2023, but the data are, as of yet, incomplete and fragmentary, so I       do not really have any ability to speak definitively.              I calculated an overall crime composite from this data (Eurostat did not       have one) by setting the median city in each category as 100, scaling each       city relative to median, and then taking the simple average of the 4       categories. This is, admittedly, a made up metric, but it’s one that seems       pretty reasonable and representative.              100 would be median crime, lower is safer, higher is less safe.              Let’s call this “crime composite index.” (CCI)              Warsaw (52.3)       Zurich (59.9)       Madrid (79.3)       Paris (96.7)       Berlin (103.1)       Amsterdam (108.3)       Stockholm (110.5)       London (120.9)       Brussels (121.2)              Being the sort of cat that simply cannot resist poking the pachyderm in       the parlor, I then went on to address the issue that I suspect a fair few       readers are beginning to wonder about.              Here’s the data on immigrants as a % of the population in these cities.              https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/eurostats-nightmare-warsaw-is-safer-       than-paris-london-and-brussels-and-everyone-knows-why/              --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05        * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)    |
[   << oldest   |   < older   |   list   |   newer >   |   newest >>   ]
(c) 1994, bbs@darkrealms.ca