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   alt.crime      Exploring the darker side of society      1,041 messages   

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   Message 1,022 of 1,041   
   useapen to All   
   Eurostat's Nightmare: Warsaw Is Safer Th   
   26 Feb 26 09:15:42   
   
   XPost: alt.society.liberalism, alt.politics.europe.misc, alt.pol   
   tics.immigration   
   XPost: talk.politics.guns, sac.politics   
   From: yourdime@outlook.com   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-31-03-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-1-1091x1536.jpg   
      
   Being a data-driven sort of feline, this seemed a bit of an unfair   
   comparison to me as it pits an urban area against a whole country, and as   
   such has the potential to embed a great deal of bias. Seeking to eliminate   
   this potential objection to the data and to make a more apples to apples   
   comparison, I first pulled data for Paris and Warsaw. I also added a   
   couple of additional categories (assault and rape), as these seemed like   
   core quality of life and safety sort of offenses.   
      
   After running that analysis, the point still stands that Paris appears far   
   more dangerous than comparable Polish cities.   
      
   The gap is no longer as large, but still remains highly significant.   
      
   Warsaw apprears noticably safer than Paris (this, and all other crime   
   data, is from 2023 Eurostat ICCS data)   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-31-35-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-2.jpg   
      
   This same relationship holds when comparing the whole of France to the   
   whole of Poland. Depending upon the category, crime rates are 2-7X higher   
   in France.   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-32-06-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-3-768x483.jpg   
      
   This got me wondering about how this might compare to some other   
   locations. As can be seen, London is considerably more dangerous than   
   Paris.   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-32-34-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-4-768x406.jpg   
      
   And we can pull this for a large number of cities and see this result   
   emerge in similar fashion. I added the largest city (by population) from a   
   number of other countries as well.   
      
   The results continue to be highly favorable for Warsaw, which looks, at   
   the margin, slightly safer even than Zurich, a city generally regarded as   
   “pretty fricking safe.”   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-33-20-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-5-768x321.jpg   
      
   One might quibble a little bit about the homicide rate in Warsaw, but it’s   
   worth realizing how low all these values are. San Diego, hardly a hotbed   
   of living dangerously, is more like 4 or 5 per 100k, so 1.15 in Warsaw is   
   nothing to lose sleep over. By American standards, there is very little   
   murder in Europe (or, at least, murder that is reported. Some argue about   
   this, and I have no high conviction view on whether and to what extent   
   this is an issue.)   
      
   This same relationship holds at national levels, so it is not a purely   
   urban phenomenon.   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-   
   2026-02-21T16-34-12-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-6-768x351.jpg   
      
   Based on anecdotal evidence, I suspect these variances may have widened   
   since 2023, but the data are, as of yet, incomplete and fragmentary, so I   
   do not really have any ability to speak definitively.   
      
   I calculated an overall crime composite from this data (Eurostat did not   
   have one) by setting the median city in each category as 100, scaling each   
   city relative to median, and then taking the simple average of the 4   
   categories. This is, admittedly, a made up metric, but it’s one that seems   
   pretty reasonable and representative.   
      
   100 would be median crime, lower is safer, higher is less safe.   
      
   Let’s call this “crime composite index.” (CCI)   
      
   Warsaw (52.3)   
   Zurich (59.9)   
   Madrid (79.3)   
   Paris (96.7)   
   Berlin (103.1)   
   Amsterdam (108.3)   
   Stockholm (110.5)   
   London (120.9)   
   Brussels (121.2)   
      
   Being the sort of cat that simply cannot resist poking the pachyderm in   
   the parlor, I then went on to address the issue that I suspect a fair few   
   readers are beginning to wonder about.   
      
   Here’s the data on immigrants as a % of the population in these cities.   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/eurostats-nightmare-warsaw-is-safer-   
   than-paris-london-and-brussels-and-everyone-knows-why/   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)   

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