XPost: alt.gossip.celebrities, alt.politics.democrats.d, sac.general   
   XPost: alt.rush-limbaugh   
   From: former-speaker-pelosi@sacbee.com   
      
   The final results are still unclear, but it seems certain that   
   Sanders won the most caucus votes. He has young voters to thank   
   for his victory.   
   Even as the Iowa caucus results are marred by reports of   
   inaccuracies and it remains uncertain whether Bernie Sanders or   
   Pete Buttigieg won more “state delegate equivalents,” one thing   
   that is clear is that Sanders won the most votes. The Vermont   
   socialist beat the former mayor of South Bend, Ind. 24.8 percent   
   to 21.3 percent in the first round of voting and 26.6 percent to   
   25.0 percent in the final round of voting (after caucus-goers   
   for candidates who didn’t meet the “viability” threshold of 15   
   percent switched their support to candidates who did).   
      
   How did Sanders pull off the victory?   
      
   The weekend before Iowans caucused, Sanders predicted that he   
   would only win with a historically high number of Iowans showing   
   up on Monday night. “I believe if there is a low voter turnout,   
   we will lose this election. If there is a high voter turnout, we   
   are going to win this election,” Sanders told Iowans gathered in   
   Des Moines the Friday before the caucus. “Our job is to create   
   the highest voter turnout in the history of the Iowa caucuses.”   
      
   As it turns out, no such record turnout came to pass. The   
   turnout was barely above 2016 levels and far short of the huge   
   levels seen in 2008:   
      
   2004: 125,000   
      
   2008: 239,000   
      
   2016: 171,500   
      
   2020: 172,500   
      
   Yet Bernie won anyway. As I noted in this space two weeks before   
   the caucuses, it was an open question how many young voters   
   would show up: “In 2016, under-30 voters accounted for just 18   
   percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. In 2008, under-30   
   voters made up 23 percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers. If   
   2020 turnout is closer to 2008 than 2016, that could swing the   
   election to Sanders.” Despite the modest overall turnout, that’s   
   exactly what happened. According to Iowa entrance polls, voters   
   under 30 comprised 24 percent of the caucus-going electorate —   
   up six points from 2016 and one point better than 2008, when   
   young voters carried Barack Obama to victory. Those voters   
   preferred Sanders to Buttigieg by nearly 30 points, 48 percent   
   to 19 percent, as did voters age 30–44 by ten points, 33 percent   
   to 23 percent.   
      
   If more young people showed up in 2020 than 2016, but the   
   overall number of voters remained the same, who didn’t show up   
   this time around? The share of voters over the age of 65   
   remained about the same: It was 28 percent in 2016, and 27   
   percent in 2020. Joe Biden ran first among this group, besting   
   Amy Klobuchar 33 percent to 22 percent, but that wasn’t enough   
   to overcome his weak overall performance. The group that shrank   
   as a share of the electorate was voters between the ages of 45   
   and 64, who comprised 36 percent of Democratic caucus-goers in   
   2016 but only 28 percent in 2020.   
      
   Oddly enough, those voters were the only age group that   
   Buttigieg carried: They preferred him to Biden by eight points,   
   26 percent to 18 percent. Whereas Sanders is strong among young   
   voters and weak among old voters and Biden has the opposite   
   problem, Buttigieg’s coalition was much more evenly distributed   
   among voters of all ages in Iowa:   
      
   17–29 year-olds: 19 percent   
      
   30–44: 23 percent   
      
   45–64: 26 percent   
      
   65 and older: 21 percent   
      
   One of the puzzling questions from this week’s caucuses is why   
   the share of voters between the ages of 45 and 64 shrunk. This   
   cohort, born between 1956 to 1975, is obviously not the same as   
   it was in 2016, but there is plenty of overlap. So what explains   
   its lack of enthusiasm?   
      
   Have Gen-Xers and younger Boomers in Iowa simply become less   
   Democratic? Did the cohort closest to retirement get spooked by   
   Sanders’s relentless charges that Biden would cut Social   
   Security and stay home? Were Gen-Xers so sad about the absence   
   of the “quintessentially Generation X” Beto O’Rourke on the   
   ballot that they sat out the caucuses in protest?   
      
   Perhaps the next few contests will give us a better idea of the   
   answer. Onward to New Hampshire.   
      
   https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/in-iowa-bernies-youth-   
   movement-showed-up-while-generation-x-flaked-   
   out/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=blog-   
   post&utm_campaign=river&utm_content=more-in&utm_term=fourth   
        
      
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