XPost: alt.politics.elections, talk.politics.guns, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh   
   XPost: sac.politics   
   From: editor@nytimes.com   
      
   In article    
    wrote:   
   >   
   > Murkowski needs to hang by the neck.  Until it pulls out of her spine.   
   >   
      
   ‘It is an understatement to call that within the margin of   
   error,’ the pollsters wrote of the final vote count.   
      
   Anew poll out Thursday shows GOP incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski   
   in a dead heat to keep her seat against Republican candidate   
   Kelly Tshibaka, who has been endorsed by former President Donald   
   Trump. According to the poll from Fabrizio Ward and Impact   
   Research, commissioned by AARP, Murkowski leads on the final   
   round of balloting by a mere three votes among the 1,050 likely   
   voters surveyed.   
      
   “It is an understatement to call that within the margin of   
   error,” the pollsters wrote in their report, noting “10 percent   
   of voters did not rank either of those candidates in the final   
   round.”   
      
   The survey was conducted by phone with a +/- 4.4 percent margin   
   of error between Sept. 6-11.   
      
   Under Alaska’s unusual and complicated ranked-choice voting   
   system first used this year, the top four candidates from the   
   open-party primary compete in the general election among voters,   
   who “rank” their preferences on the ballot. If no candidate   
   receives a majority, or 50 percent of the first-choice ballots   
   case, the votes are re-tabulated again after eliminating the   
   lowest vote-getter. The lost candidate’s ballots are then   
   counted towards the voters’ second-choice pick, and the process   
   is repeated until a candidate reaches more than 50 percent.   
      
   According to the AARP survey, Tshibaka holds a 13 percent lead   
   over Murkowski with 43 percent of the vote to 35 percent, while   
   Democrat Patricia Chesbro comes behind at 13 percent followed by   
   Republican Buzz Kelley at 1 percent. Seven percent reported they   
   were undecided.   
      
   Kelley dropped out of the race Monday and endorsed Tshibaka, who   
   is also running with the support of the state party.   
      
   After eliminating Kelley on the second round of ballot   
   tabulation, the race remained virtually unchanged, with Tshibaka   
   in the lead with 46 percent to Murkowski’s 38 percent and   
   Chesbro’s 14 percent. On the final round of ballot counting,   
   however, Tshibaka and Murkowski are tied, with the incumbent   
   lawmaker edging out her Republican opponent by three votes after   
   Democrat ballots from Chesbro largely flow to Murkowski.   
      
   The AARP poll closely matches an internal survey the Tshibaka   
   campaign told supporters about on a statewide call Monday,   
   moments after Kelley dropped out of the contest and threw his   
   support behind Tshibaka. According to the campaign’s internal   
   poll conducted by Cygnal in August, Tshibaka leads on the first   
   two rounds of ballot tabulation, only to lose by 0.2 percent in   
   the final vote, well within the +/- 4.32 percent margin of error.   
      
   [READ: Alaska’s Ranked-Choice Voting Scheme Was A Plot To Save   
   Murkowski, But It Also Doomed Palin]   
      
   https://thefederalist.com/2022/09/16/new-alaska-senate-poll-   
   reveals-lisa-murkowski-neck-and-neck-with-kelly-tshibaka/   
      
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