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   Vote shows Specter's switch isn't a lock   
   Senate's newest Dem says 'no' to budget bill   
   By John Fritze   
   USA TODAY   
      
   WASHINGTON - Hours after telling President Obama that he would be no   
   automatic vote for Democrats - even though he had just joined their ranks -   
   Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter proved the point.   
      
   In one of his first major votes since defecting to the Democratic Party,   
   Specter sided with Republicans and voted against a $3.4 trillion budget   
   Wednesday night that laid the broad groundwork for policies championed by   
   Obama's administration.   
      
   Though not unexpected, the vote underscores Specter's independent streak. It   
   also suggests that just because Democrats are one seat closer to a 60-vote   
   majority, it doesn't mean Obama's agenda will be a lock in Congress.   
      
   As Congress prepares to tackle an overhaul of the nation's health care   
   system and a proposal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, it may be crucial   
   for the Senate Democrats to reach 60 votes to overturn GOP-led filibusters   
   that could block votes on bills.   
      
   Now with Specter as a Democrat, the party hopes to rely on 59 votes. They   
   could hit 60 this year if Al Franken wins the Minnesota race. Franken is   
   ahead, but the state's highest court is considering a challenge to the   
   results.   
      
   Specter, a five-term senator known as a contrarian, appeared with Obama on   
   Wednesday - a day after he announced he has switched parties and will seek   
   re-election as a Democrat in 2010. He said he will help advance Democratic   
   policies but also cautioned: "I will not be an automatic 60th vote."   
      
   Emory University political scientist Randall Strahan said it is a mistake to   
   believe that Specter will help "produce a solid filibuster-proof majority in   
   the Senate that will support all the initiatives of the administration."   
      
   "Sen. Specter has been a fairly independent senator as a Republican, and I   
   don't think that's going to change," Strahan said.   
      
   Nevertheless, advocates of expanding health insurance coverage predict   
   Specter will put Congress in a stronger position to pass a bill this year.   
      
   Specter, who has battled cancer, has sought increased funding for medical   
   research in the past and was one of nine Senate Republicans who voted this   
   year to expand state health insurance programs for children.   
      
   "I think his natural inclinations are to be supportive of meaningful health   
   care reform," said Ron Pollack, executive director of Families USA, which   
   has supported health care legislation. "Now, he can vote his more natural   
   inclinations."   
      
   Specter also has sponsored legislation to reduce emissions, though the bill   
   relied on less aggressive deadlines than a proposal under consideration in   
   the House. Daniel Lashof, director of the Climate Center at the Natural   
   Resources Defense Council, said he expects Specter can help the Senate pass   
   a climate-change bill.   
      
   "President Obama, whose leadership is going to be critical, now has a lot of   
   leverage with Sen. Specter," he said.   
      
   Specter opposed Republicans on 38% of his votes in 2008 and 51% in 2007,   
   according to a Congressional Quarterly analysis. In February, he was one of   
   only three Republicans to back Obama's $787 billion stimulus plan.   
      
   Democrats, including Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, have said they did   
   not ask Specter to commit on the main issues facing Congress this year.   
      
   "Of course, it moves us one vote closer on critical votes," said Senate   
   Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill. "I wouldn't presume to guess what his vote   
   would be on any given issue, but I'm hopeful that he'll be supportive of   
   President Obama's agenda."   
      
   Sen. Robert Casey, D-Pa., said Specter will have the freedom to take more   
   moderate positions on controversial issues because he will no longer have to   
   answer to the conservative wing of the Republican Party. Specter faced a   
   primary challenge from Pat Toomey, former director of the conservative Club   
   for Growth.   
      
   "I do think it overall moves the president's agenda," Casey said. "I think   
   it would have been increasingly harder for him to work on the broader   
   agenda."   
      
   Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who considered joining Obama's Cabinet but then   
   backed out, agreed. "When you join a caucus," he said, "you have to vote   
   with them most of the time."   
      
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