From: vagans@eanna.net   
      
   Playing with dsl this weekend. A quick reply before taking down the   
   network. I'll get back to the rest of your article in a bit.   
      
      
      
   On Tue, 25 Nov 2003, Alienthe wrote:   
      
   > I went to the East, I believe you mentioned earlier you   
   > did too. My impression was that you could feel the future   
   > coming, there was a feeling in the air of inevitable   
   > success. Very unlike the West.   
      
   The sense of the inevitable will confront the finitness of natural   
   resources, most especially oil.   
      
   China cannot replicate the magnitude and depth of the US's -- or the   
   west's generally (US, England, EU, Japan) -- consumer economy, which is   
   driven by oil consumption -- not to mention India and the rest of Asia.   
   Or, if it could be replicated, it could only last a few years before the   
   costs of getting online proven and probable reserves of oil wrecked the   
   consumer financial system via a very steep rise in the general   
   price-level and hyper-inflation. A very modest analogy woud be to the   
   OPEC todo in the 1970s.   
      
   They will have to devise something else, but there is no other example   
   of a consumer economy except what we've got now. This may be it. It   
   doesn't seem likely a vibrant economy of hyper-consumption could exist   
   on a foundation of preservation of natural resources, for example.   
      
   There are alternative resources for energy, from the mundane to the   
   sf. They imply an alternative financial system and economy; it's   
   consumer economy, if it is to be one, could not replicate ours.   
      
   Both East and West would seem to have a fine motivation for persuing   
   alternatives, but it is not simply a matter of financing and economics   
   and getting the technology done. It is cultural and geo-political, too;   
   and if anything is inevitable in doing this, it is unintended   
   consequences.   
      
   Between now and then will be a rough time for all. I expect global   
   dislocations and transformations. Ten years from now, little of now will   
   remain.   
      
      
   --   
     (__)    Sourcerer   
    /(<>)\ O|O|O|O||O||O When you're looking for something that doesn't exist,   
     \../  |OO|||O|||O|O it makes you crazier the closer you get to it.   
      ||   OO|||OO||O||O                                   -- R. Ebert   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)