From: Alienthe@hotmail.com   
      
   Sourcerer wrote:   
      
   > Playing with dsl this weekend. A quick reply before taking down the   
   > network. I'll get back to the rest of your article in a bit.   
   >   
   >    
   >   
   > On Tue, 25 Nov 2003, Alienthe wrote:   
   >   
   >   
   >>I went to the East, I believe you mentioned earlier you   
   >>did too. My impression was that you could feel the future   
   >>coming, there was a feeling in the air of inevitable   
   >>success. Very unlike the West.   
   >   
   > The sense of the inevitable will confront the finitness of natural   
   > resources, most especially oil.   
      
      
   Only the other day I checked out the alleged reserves in the   
   North Sea and the spread in expectations was simply amazing.   
   One excessively exuberant-optimistic report detailed how much   
   was left in sites not yet discovered (seriously) and concluded   
   there was oil for decades and decades and calmly concluded any   
   different views were merely myths.   
      
   A more sober report, less afraid of hard facts and figures,   
   extrapolated available figures and concluded a dramatic drop   
   around 2005 - 2010, tailing off at levels of insignificance   
   for many years thereafter.   
      
   > China cannot replicate the magnitude and depth of the US's -- or the   
   > west's generally (US, England, EU, Japan) -- consumer economy, which is   
   > driven by oil consumption -- not to mention India and the rest of Asia.   
   > Or, if it could be replicated, it could only last a few years before the   
   > costs of getting online proven and probable reserves of oil wrecked the   
   > consumer financial system via a very steep rise in the general   
   > price-level and hyper-inflation. A very modest analogy woud be to the   
   > OPEC todo in the 1970s.   
      
      
   It has been said that Taklamakan might have oil reserves   
   similar in size to Middle East. The Spratley Islands and   
   the Paracell Islands might also have serious amounts of   
   oil. Any definite discovery here will definitely be   
   important to the future of China and much of the rest of   
   the world.   
      
   > They will have to devise something else, but there is no other example   
   > of a consumer economy except what we've got now. This may be it. It   
   > doesn't seem likely a vibrant economy of hyper-consumption could exist   
   > on a foundation of preservation of natural resources, for example.   
      
      
   Then again the authorities in China might not even want a   
   major shift in the economy, the rise is already causing   
   large upheavals in the country as it is with mass migration   
   to the cities.   
      
   > There are alternative resources for energy, from the mundane to the   
   > sf. They imply an alternative financial system and economy; it's   
   > consumer economy, if it is to be one, could not replicate ours.   
   >   
   > Both East and West would seem to have a fine motivation for persuing   
   > alternatives, but it is not simply a matter of financing and economics   
   > and getting the technology done. It is cultural and geo-political, too;   
   > and if anything is inevitable in doing this, it is unintended   
   > consequences.   
   >   
   > Between now and then will be a rough time for all. I expect global   
   > dislocations and transformations. Ten years from now, little of now will   
   > remain.   
      
      
   Agreed. Exciting times are ahead.   
      
      
   ==<)   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)