From: slider@anashram.com   
      
   Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States   
   warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons   
   systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could   
   bring “unpredictable consequences.”   
      
   The diplomatic démarche, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington   
   Post, came as President Biden approved a dramatic expansion in the scope   
   of weapons being provided to Ukraine, an $800 million package including   
   155 mm Howitzers — a serious upgrade in long-range artillery to match   
   Russian systems — coastal defense drones and armored vehicles, as well as   
   additional portable anti-air and antitank weapons and millions of rounds   
   of ammunition.   
      
   The United States has also facilitated the shipment to Ukraine of   
   long-range air defense systems, including Slovakia’s shipment of   
   Russian-manufactured Soviet-era S-300 launchers on which Ukrainian forces   
   have already been trained. In exchange, the administration announced last   
   week, the United States is deploying a Patriot missile system to Slovakia   
   and consulting with Slovakia on a long-term replacement.   
      
   Shipment of the weapons, the first wave of which U.S. officials said would   
   arrive in Ukraine within days, follows an urgent appeal to Biden from   
   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Russian forces were said to be   
   mobilizing for a major assault on eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region and   
   along the coastal strip connecting it with Russian-occupied Crimea in the   
   south.   
      
   The State Department declined to comment on the contents of the two-page   
   diplomatic note or any U.S. response.   
      
   Russia experts suggested Moscow, which has labeled weapons convoys coming   
   into the country as legitimate military targets but has not thus far   
   attacked them, may be preparing to do so.   
      
   “They have targeted supply depots in Ukraine itself, where some of these   
   supplies have been stored,” said George Beebe, former director of Russia   
   analysis at the CIA and Russia adviser to former vice president Dick   
   Cheney. “The real question is do they go beyond attempting to target [the   
   weapons] on Ukrainian territory, try to hit the supply convoys themselves   
   and perhaps the NATO countries on the Ukrainian periphery” that serve as   
   transfer points for the U.S. supplies.   
      
   If Russian forces stumble in the next phase of the war as they did in the   
   first, “then I think the chances that Russia targets NATO supplies on NATO   
   territory go up considerably,” Beebe said. “There has been an assumption   
   on the part of a lot of us in the West that we could supply the Ukrainians   
   really without limits and not bear significant risk of retaliation from   
   Russia,” he said. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that   
   that’s not true.”   
      
   The diplomatic note was dated Tuesday, as word first leaked of the new   
   arms package that brought the total amount of U.S. military aid provided   
   to Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion to $3.2 billion, according to   
   Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. In a public announcement Wednesday, Biden   
   said it would include “new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we   
   expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine.”   
      
   The document, titled “On Russia’s concerns in the context of massive   
   supplies of weapons and military equipment to the Kiev regime,” written in   
   Russian with a translation provided, was forwarded to the State Department   
   by the Russian Embassy in Washington.   
      
   The Russian embassy did not respond to requests for comment.   
      
   Among the items Russia identified as “most sensitive” were “multiple   
   launch rocket systems,” although the United States and its NATO allies are   
   not believed to have supplied those weapons to Ukraine. Russia accused the   
   allies of violating “rigorous principles” governing the transfer of   
   weapons to conflict zones, and of being oblivious to “the threat of   
   high-precision weapons falling into the hands of radical nationalists,   
   extremists and bandit forces in Ukraine.”   
      
   It accused NATO of trying to pressure Ukraine to “abandon” sputtering, and   
   so far unsuccessful, negotiations with Russia “in order to continue the   
   bloodshed.” Washington, it said, was pressuring other countries to stop   
   any military and technical cooperation with Russia, and those with   
   Soviet-era weapons to transfer them to Ukraine.   
      
   “We call on the United States and its allies to stop the irresponsible   
   militarization of Ukraine, which implies unpredictable consequences for   
   regional and international security,” the note said.   
      
   Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council director for Russian,   
   Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs, and now vice president for studies at the   
   Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recalled that Russian   
   President Vladimir Putin, in a speech on the February morning the invasion   
   began, warned that Western nations would face “consequences greater than   
   any you have faced in history” if they became involved in the conflict.   
      
   Attention at the time focused on Putin’s reminder that Russia possesses a   
   powerful nuclear arsenal, Weiss said, but it was also “a very explicit   
   warning about not sending weapons into a conflict zone.” Having drawn a   
   red line, he asked, are the Russians “now inclined to back that up?”   
      
   Such an attack would be “a very important escalatory move, first and   
   foremost because it represents a threat to the West if they aren’t able to   
   keep supplies flowing into Ukraine, which by extension might diminish   
   Ukraine’s capacity for self-defense.” That risk “shouldn’t be   
   downplayed,”   
   he said, noting the added risk that an attempt to strike a convoy inside   
   Ukraine could go awry over the border into NATO territory.   
      
   Senior U.S. defense officials remain concerned about the possibility of   
   such attacks. “We don’t take any movement of weapons and systems going   
   into Ukraine for granted,” Kirby said Thursday. “Not on any given day.”   
      
   Kirby said Ukrainian troops bring the weapons into Ukraine after the   
   United States brings them into the region, and “the less we say about   
   that, the better.”   
      
   https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russ   
   a-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/   
      
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