From: slider@anashram.com   
      
   It’s easy to understand why some would think bringing Sweden and Finland   
   into NATO is a good idea. It would serve Putin right to have his illegal,   
   immoral, and unjustified invasion of Ukraine end up more than doubling   
   Russia’s border with NATO. It would reflect what appears to be the   
   majority sentiment in Finland and a growing majority of Swedes. Both   
   countries have “first-rate” military capabilities as well as strong   
   democratic traditions, which would bolster NATO’s power and reputation.   
      
   But the desire to humiliate Putin and reinforce U.S. global military   
   dominance is shortsighted and dangerous. It risks escalating, expanding,   
   and prolonging the war in Ukraine. It will vastly increase the probability   
   of a nuclear exchange, which could easily spiral into a global holocaust.   
   The U.S. Senate — which by a two-thirds majority must give its advice and   
   consent to the ratification of protocols adding new members to the   
   alliance — should think hard before rubber-stamping the admission of new   
   candidates.   
      
   Escalating, expanding, prolonging the war in Ukraine   
      
   The highest priority of the United States should be to bring this war to a   
   swift conclusion through an immediate ceasefire and a negotiated   
   settlement that is fair and durable.   
      
   Yet the Biden administration — under pressure from Congress and the   
   foreign policy establishment — has only ratcheted up its war aims, from   
   containing Russia to crushing it.  Following a high-level visit to   
   Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin described the U.S. goal as seeing   
   “Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kinds of things it has   
   done in invading Ukraine,” while Democratic leaders called for an outright   
   military “victory”.   
      
   The deepening U.S. involvement is not mere rhetoric; the United States has   
   now admitted to providing operational intelligence that Ukrainian forces   
   used to target and kill Russian generals as well as to sink Russia’s   
   prized warship. Deliveries of increasingly heavy and sophisticated arms   
    from the United States and its allies have gone beyond allowing Ukrainian   
   President Volodymyr Zelensky to defend his country; they have emboldened   
   him to vastly expand his demands for entering peace talks. Whereas he had   
   earlier indicated significant flexibility on the Donbas, Zelensky is now   
   demanding “a restoration of preinvasion borders, the return of more than 5   
   million refugees, membership in the European Union, and accountability   
    from Russian military leaders.”   
      
   In this environment, pressing NATO up against Russia’s doorstep is a   
   provocation that will only raise the stakes in the Ukraine war and make it   
   more difficult for Putin to back down. It was a mistake to incorporate the   
   former Warsaw Pact countries into NATO after the end of the Cold War, as   
   many leading analysts and policymakers argued at the time, and it   
   ultimately served to reinforce Russia’s sense of isolation and   
   encirclement.   
      
   Indeed, Ukraine’s desire to join NATO and its receipt of arms and training   
    from the United States were certainly key factors in Putin’s decision to   
   invade. Expanding NATO now will raise the stakes for Putin in a way that   
   virtually guarantees the war will drag on longer and increases the chances   
   it will expand beyond Ukraine’s borders.   
      
   Setting back prospects for peace in Europe   
      
   Saying “yes” to Finland and Sweden will make it far more difficult to say   
   “no” to Ukraine. More importantly, Finnish and Swedish accession to NATO   
   could end up destabilizing Europe rather than protecting it. Neither   
   country faced a serious threat from Russia before this crisis, but the   
   arms bonanza that will inevitably result from their incorporation into   
   NATO could create incentives for Russia to push back. The war has already   
   provided a huge boon for defense contractors, as pressure ramps up to   
   modernize and improve the interoperability of systems and flush out the   
   last remaining Russian military equipment.   
      
   What Europe needs is not a redrawing of Cold War boundaries and the   
   creation of a larger NATO footprint, but a new architecture of security   
   and economic institutions that all European countries, including Russia,   
   can eventually join.   
      
   Raising nuclear risks   
      
   The world has been rightly aghast at Russian threats to use nuclear   
   weapons if its existence is jeopardized, although the United States has   
   also refused to rule out the first use of nuclear weapons. Given the   
   danger that even a single tactical nuclear weapon could cause calamitous   
   damage and quickly escalate into a full-scale nuclear exchange, keeping   
   the war in Ukraine from turning nuclear ought to be a central objective of   
   U.S. and NATO military planners. Which begs the question: how does   
   expanding NATO advance that objective?   
      
   Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified that Putin might   
   turn to nuclear weapons if he believed he was losing the war in Ukraine,   
   especially if NATO were to intervene. Confoundingly, a “resounding   
   military defeat” is exactly what some U.S. senators are goading the   
   Pentagon to seek. Moreover, NATO’s expanding involvement in the war — and   
   potentially, NATO’s expanding size — raise the ante for Putin, vastly   
   increasing the chances of a nuclear conflagration. Even before Russia’s   
   invasion of Ukraine, experts deemed the world to be “the closest it has   
   ever been to civilization-ending apocalypse.”   
      
   President Biden himself seems to understand the need to avoid pushing   
   Putin into a corner. “The problem I worry about now,”he told a gathering   
   of Democrats, “is that he doesn’t have a way out right now, and I’m   
   trying   
   to figure out what we do about that.”Yet imposing debilitating economic   
   sanctions, calling Putin a “war criminal,” and prematurely announcing U.S.   
   support for NATO membership for Sweden and Finland only narrow Putin’s   
   options and make Russia increasingly likely to use nuclear weapons in   
   Ukraine.   
      
   Nuclear risks are not limited to deliberate use. As Thomas L. Friedman   
   explains, “the longer this war goes on, the more opportunity for   
   catastrophic miscalculations — and the raw material for that is piling up   
   fast and furious.” The basing of more NATO troops and nuclear weapons   
   closer to Russian soil could certainly make Putin’s fingers twitchier.   
      
   The alternative   
      
   Providers of single-family rental homes are an important part of America’s   
   housing ecosystem   
   Keep the Chinese Communist Party out of college   
   In addition to taking NATO membership off the table for Ukraine, the West   
   could put NATO membership for Sweden and Finland on the negotiating table   
   with Russia. A promise not to expand NATO at all would be fairer to   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)