From: slider@anashram.com   
      
   A few weeks ago, the US bank JP Morgan offered an apocalyptic warning that   
   barely made a ripple outside the financial press. It said that if Russia   
   completely halted oil exports, the shock to the world economy could be so   
   large it would instantly quadruple the price of oil to nearly $400 a   
   barrel. Right now, it’s hovering at around $100 a barrel.   
      
   Since the world is still heavily reliant on oil, the shock to the world   
   economy would be far worse than during the 1970s – and plunge us into a   
   deep recession.   
      
   But there’s more. This week, Russia also turned off most of its natural   
   gas supplies to Europe, via the Nordstream 1 pipeline as part of planned   
   routine maintenance. It is supposed to be just for a short period, but the   
   German government is seriously worried that Russia could turn off the tap   
   completely. Putin has already begun to cut gas shipments to Europe over   
   the last few months, driving prices continuously higher. It’s not   
   difficult to see how this could play out and why the impact would be   
   catastrophic.   
      
   The prices of oil and gas are set internationally, and in that market   
   Russia is a dominant player. Since world supplies are already stretched to   
   their limits, a ban from Russia would instantly drive up prices to what JP   
   Morgan called “stratospheric” levels.   
      
   While the United States has plentiful supplies for itself, Europe is still   
   deeply dependent on Russia. German and Italian industry in particular   
   would be crippled by higher energy costs and thousands of companies would   
   simply go bust. Millions of people would become jobless and their energy   
   bills would skyrocket to unsustainable levels. Millions would be unable to   
   afford to cook food or drive cars.   
      
   Putin has already been weaponising fossil fuels. He recently shut off gas   
   supplies to several European countries if they didn’t pay in roubles,   
   eventually forcing them to relent. He has also been cutting off Ukrainian   
   exports of food to drive up prices around the world. Natural gas now   
   rivals oil as the fuel that shapes geopolitics – and there isn’t enough of   
   it to go around, as Bloomberg News put it recently.   
      
   By abruptly shutting off supplies, Putin would deliver a colossal shock to   
   our oil and gas-dependent economies. Stockmarkets would plunge and   
   thousands of companies would go bankrupt from being unable to afford   
   energy supplies. Millions of people would lose their jobs and the West   
   would instantly lose the political will to send money to Ukraine. Putin   
   would win.   
      
   https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-ener   
   y-supplies-b2122896.html   
      
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