From: robgood@bestweb.net   
      
   On Thursday, August 20, 2020 at 3:00:16 AM UTC-4, bil...@shaw.ca wrote:   
   > On Wednesday, August 19, 2020 at 5:41:06 PM UTC-7, Bob wrote:    
   > > On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 4:52:49 PM UTC-4, bil...@shaw.ca wrote:    
   > > > On Tuesday, August 18, 2020 at 1:25:55 PM UTC-7, Bob wrote:    
   > > > >    
   > > > > How often have schools closed because of the flu? I don't get the   
   justification for closing because of THIS respiratory illness and not THAT   
   one.    
   > > >    
   > > > Covid19 has a fatality rate of between three and four per cent.    
   > > > Regular influenza has a fatality rate below 0.1 per cent. In    
   > > > other words, the coronavirus is 30 to 40 times more likely to kill    
   > > > you than an ordinary flu.    
   > > >    
   > > > Do you get it now?    
   > > >    
   > > > bill    
   > >    
   > > Yes, I get that some people are using figures that make the "fatality   
   rate" come out unjustifiedly high. The estimates I've heard of how many die   
   out    
   > > of how many get colonized by the virus are now running around 0.3-0.4%,   
   which is comparable to some of the influenzas of the past.    
   > >    
   > > Not only that, but if you consider just children, the fatality rate for   
   even the average flu is greater than that for Covid-19. For old people,   
   Covid-19's    
   > > about the same range of danger as viral pneumonia generally. The agents of   
   viral pneumonia must always be circulating in the general population, yet we    
   > > don't try to control its spread there.    
   > >   
   > You'll have to do a little better than "estimates I've heard".    
   >    
   > I'll go first:    
   >    
   > "Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially   
   seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time   
   to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality   
   ratio (the number of    
   reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection   
   mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of   
   infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well   
   below 0.1%. However,    
   mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health   
   care."    
   >    
   >     
       
   I'm going by an actual projection of the infection mortality rate based on   
   population surveys to figure the number of those infected.  These are   
   projected to be 10 times the number of reported cases.  So divide 3-4% by 10,   
   and that's what you get.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)