From: snidely.too@gmail.com   
      
   This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us.  And as such,   
   this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do   
   you consider it an upset?   
      
   This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball   
   tournament.  Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context   
   considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded   
   team.  Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset?  What   
   about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?   
      
   [Note:  the actual tourney had some clear upsets in the first and   
   second round]   
      
   In college football, there's the national ranking for FBS-elgigble   
   teams, and it's clear that an unranked team (that is, from outside the   
   Top 25) beating a ranked team is generally an upset.  But within the   
   T25, how much separation in rank is needed to score an upset?   
      
   There are also less official rankings, like KenPom for college   
   basketball that can be used.  How much delta-rank is needed for an   
   upset based on your favorite rankings?   
      
   For the usual North American pro sports, we can use each leagues   
   standings to judge upsets.  These are mainly based on win/loss (and   
   sometimes tie) records, and I usually just eyeball those.  For   
   instance, in the NHL the Jets beat the Golden Knights, and their record   
   is now 46-33-3 and the GKs are at 51-22-9.  Is that enough of a   
   difference to count as an upset for you?  I'm inclined to waffle with   
   "minor upset", but if the 46 was 48, I think that would be too close   
   for shock or surprise at the result.   
      
   Pro Tennis and Pro Golf have rankings maintained by their   
   organizations.  Would Petra Kvitova beating Coco Gauff be an upset?   
   Coco Grauff beating Jesic Pegula?  Matt Fitzpatrick over Patrick   
   Cantlay?  Patrick  Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler?   
      
   And of course, some AFCAns can comment of what's an upset in English   
   Premier League or n the Dutch Eredvisie.  Or on what's cricket.   
      
   My simple answer is usually based on win/loss, but should I be   
   adjusting for strength of schedule or for what I expect from a teams   
   star players vs the other teams?  I think I've learned that LeBron   
   James and Kevin Durant aren't always the determining factor, but would   
   you expect the stars to make a difference to deciding if a win is an   
   upset?   
      
   If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which team or   
   player do you want to see win an upset victory?   
      
   /dps   
      
   --   
   "What do you think of my cart, Miss Morland? A neat one, is not it?   
   Well hung: curricle-hung in fact. Come sit by me and we'll test the   
   springs."   
   (Speculative fiction by H.Lacedaemonian.)   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)