From: boron_elgar@hotmail.com   
      
   On Wed, 19 Apr 2023 00:33:03 -0700, Snidely    
   wrote:   
      
   >This is for our current crop of sports fans, both of us.  And as such,   
   >this is about when a game/match/meet is won, under what conditions do   
   >you consider it an upset?   
   >   
   >This question began bugging me during the recent NCAA basketball   
   >tournament.  Firvethirtyeight.com, for instance, in that context   
   >considered it an upset anytime a lower-seeded team beat a higher-seeded   
   >team.  Would you consider a #5 seed beating a #4 seed an upset?  What   
   >about a #6 team beating a #4 team or a #5 seed beating #3?   
   >   
   >[Note:  the actual tourney had some clear upsets in the first and   
   >second round]   
   >   
   >In college football, there's the national ranking for FBS-elgigble   
   >teams, and it's clear that an unranked team (that is, from outside the   
   >Top 25) beating a ranked team is generally an upset.  But within the   
   >T25, how much separation in rank is needed to score an upset?   
   >   
   >There are also less official rankings, like KenPom for college   
   >basketball that can be used.  How much delta-rank is needed for an   
   >upset based on your favorite rankings?   
   >   
   >For the usual North American pro sports, we can use each leagues   
   >standings to judge upsets.  These are mainly based on win/loss (and   
   >sometimes tie) records, and I usually just eyeball those.  For   
   >instance, in the NHL the Jets beat the Golden Knights, and their record   
   >is now 46-33-3 and the GKs are at 51-22-9.  Is that enough of a   
   >difference to count as an upset for you?  I'm inclined to waffle with   
   >"minor upset", but if the 46 was 48, I think that would be too close   
   >for shock or surprise at the result.   
   >   
   >Pro Tennis and Pro Golf have rankings maintained by their   
   >organizations.  Would Petra Kvitova beating Coco Gauff be an upset?   
   >Coco Grauff beating Jesic Pegula?  Matt Fitzpatrick over Patrick   
   >Cantlay?  Patrick  Cantlay over Scottie Scheffler?   
   >   
   >And of course, some AFCAns can comment of what's an upset in English   
   >Premier League or n the Dutch Eredvisie.  Or on what's cricket.   
   >   
   >My simple answer is usually based on win/loss, but should I be   
   >adjusting for strength of schedule or for what I expect from a teams   
   >star players vs the other teams?  I think I've learned that LeBron   
   >James and Kevin Durant aren't always the determining factor, but would   
   >you expect the stars to make a difference to deciding if a win is an   
   >upset?   
   >   
   >If all this is too deep a philosophical question for you, which team or   
   >player do you want to see win an upset victory?   
   >   
   >/dps   
      
      
   Holy moly- I am glad I only follow baseball.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)