XPost: rec.arts.books.tolkien   
   From: joedoe3@gmail.com   
      
   Steuard Jensen schrieb am 02/28/2013 03:48 PM:   
   > Consider: You are Sauron, in the early stages of a war against Gondor   
   > and a hunt for your Ring that has recently resurfaced. You have just   
   > met an unexpected challenge from an upstart heir of Isildur who   
   > somehow managed to turn the tide of battle at Minas Tirith when your   
   > victory there seemed all but certain. It seems very likely that this   
   > "Aragorn" has claimed your Ring and is using it (or planning to use   
   > it) to challenge you. In fact, he is now leading a significant but   
   > still laughably small army to *attack* the gates of your realm.   
   >   
   > Clearly, Aragorn's plan must be to use the Ring to make this assault   
   > something other than a suicide mission. He must expect to ______ ___   
   > ______ _ ______ ___ ________ _______ [...]. Therefore, your best   
   > response is to gather as many of your own troops as possible in Udun   
   > in order to repel his assault: Orcs, Men, Trolls, and the rest, with   
   > the surviving Nazgul circling overhead to sew despair in your enemies.   
   > By doing this, you will be able to crush his tiny force and recover   
   > the Ring for yourself!   
   >   
   >   
   > So my question is, what exactly is supposed to fill in those blanks?   
   > In Sauron's mind, Aragorn clearly didn't expect his army's small size   
   > to be a death sentence. Thus, "Aragorn" must have expected that he   
   > could use the Ring to neutralize the disparity in numbers. Was "his"   
   > expectation that he could inspire his paltry few troops to superhuman   
   > prowess in battle? That seems unlikely against such overwhelming odds.   
   > Did "he" expect that he could paralyze Sauron's armies into inaction,   
   > or even turn them to his own side? The why would Sauron sending even   
   > more troops into range help? Did "he" plan to shoot fireballs or cause   
   > earthquakes or something? But there's no evidence for anything like   
   > that. What other possibilities am I overlooking?   
      
   since we do not know the powers of the Ruling Ring, we have to guess   
   those in addition to the reasoning of Sauron.   
      
   In my opinion, the most likely reasoning is that Sauron would fill in   
   your blanks by a combination of overconfidence and underestamtion of the   
   strength of Mordor on the one hand, plus a worst case idea on the powers   
   of the Ring.   
      
   Gandalf indicates that Sauron may think Aragorn is now capable of   
   commanding the weather, he has proven capable to appear out of nowhere   
   with a powerful army to vanquish the Corsairs and he may be able to use   
   the power of teh Ring to control some of Sauron's armies. But I presume   
   the more armies you want to control, the harder (isn't is said in some   
   of the HoME books, that Morgoth lost much of his strength by trying to   
   dominate Arda, orcs, dragons, etc?) and therefore striking with   
   overwhelming force may negate the power of the Ring.   
      
   hence I would complete your sentence as:   
      
   "He must expect to be able to assault my gates and defeat me in open   
   battle - what an overconfident twerp! One little victory and he thinks   
   he is somebody? Maybe he thinks I have used all my power against him and   
   has no clue that I still have many armies at my call. Maybe he thinks   
   the Ruling Ring allows him to wrest control of my armies from me - but I   
   will show him. Neither will he be able to wield the full power of the   
   Ring yet nor can he imagine how hard it is to control 100000 Trolls,   
   Orcs, Variags, and Haradrim. I'll crush him and finally get all that is   
   mine back!"   
      
   > Also, we know from   
   > Letters that the Nazgul would be unable to assault a declared   
   > Ringlord, so why did Sauron send them into this conflict at all?   
      
   hm, even if they can't assault the Ringlord, they can strike fear in the   
   hearts of his allies and thereby make him vulnerable. Moreover, they are   
   the most capable to obtain/return the Ring to its rightful master.   
      
   > I have my guesses about all of that, but I'm interested in hearing   
   > others' thoughts. But let's take this a step further. Once the Black   
   > Gate opened and battle was joined, it was inevitably a "normal" battle   
   > with no Ring influence.   
   > At what point (if ever) would Sauron become   
   > suspicious that the Ring wasn't there to be used at all?   
      
   I think he would become suspicious once he wins and does not find the   
   Ring, especially if ll bis shots are accounted for   
      
   > If Sauron   
   > thought that Aragorn had already used the Ring to influence the   
   > outcome at Minas Tirith (*Did* he? I have some memory that they   
   > guessed so),   
      
   Gandalf suggests that Sauron might attribute the change in weather and   
   the death of the chief Nazgul to the Ring; if he knew about the Army of   
   the Dead he might have seen that also a sign of the Ring at work (Gimli   
   emphasizes that Aragorn held everything together "by the strength of his   
   will" - certainly weaker characters would have needed a Ring to achieve   
   the same control).   
      
   > what could it mean that there were *no* hints of Ring   
   > influence at the Morannon? (One would think that the Nazgul at least   
   > would have known if the Ring was being used, or even if it were   
   > present. Why didn't they tell Sauron, "Hey: the Ring's not here at   
   > all!")   
      
   yes, i find this bothersome, too, unless the Ring of Power would also   
   allow the wearer to hide that it is being used.   
      
   > And imagine that Frodo had been one day farther from Orodruin when the   
   > battle occurred. Isn't there a concern that Sauron would catch on to   
   > the real plan once it became clear that the battle honestly had been a   
   > suicidal feint? "What the heck could they have been hoping to distract   
   > me fro.... Oh!"   
      
   in my opinion, even from a purely macchiavellian point of view he should   
   have considered that idea: as things stood at the end of the Third Age,   
   Sauron was by far the most powerful player, with no rational hope for   
   even an Alliance of All Free People to overthrow him. Hence any would-be   
   ruler of ME would first have to destroy/defeat Sauron - and after that   
   setting himself (or herself) up as the new Lord among the remaining   
   players would be much easier than defeating Sauron.   
      
   So unless Sauron has perfect trust in the addictive power of the Ring,   
   he should have considered destroying it as the almost natural first step   
   in defeating him - even if he could not imagine that the other side   
   intended to have "noone in his place".   
      
   regards   
    Geza   
      
      
   --   
                               Now come ye all,   
   who have courage and hope!  My call harken   
   to flight, to freedom       in far places!   
                                         Lays of Beleriand   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)