XPost: rec.arts.books.tolkien   
   From: jon.lennart.beck.its.my.name@mail.its.in.danmark   
      
   "Stan Brown"  skrev i meddelelsen   
   news:MPG.2cd5759c28aab90b98e21b@news.individual.net...   
      
   > On Fri, 25 Oct 2013 21:11:42 -0400, John W Kennedy wrote:   
      
   >> Must we assume that there was any such effect at all? Sauron was   
   >> already on the rise even before Déagol found the ring, and suffered his   
   >> second-greatest defeat of the Third Age during Bilbo's period of   
   >> greatest use.   
      
   > Which defeat was that?   
      
   > If you're thinking of his retreat from Dol Guldur, I always thought   
   > of that as a strategic retreat more than a defeat.  The White Council   
   > evidently believed they had won a victory -- in /The Hobbit/ Gandalf   
   > tells Bilbo that southwest Mirkwood will be free of the Shadow for   
   > "many a long age" or words to that effect.  (IDHTBIFOM.)   
      
   > But, if I'm not mistaken, it soon became evident that Sauron had long   
   > been preparing to move from Dol Guldur to the Barad-dûr, and then he   
   > sent the Nazgûl back to occupy Dol Guldur, so he didn't actually lose   
   > anything from the White Council's action.   
      
      Judging by the section The Quest of Erebor in Unfinished Tales, the   
   combination of Smaug's death and Sauron's retreat from Dol Guldur was a   
   significant defeat for Sauron, just not a decisive one.  It may be argued   
   that Smaug's death and the restoration of the kingdoms of Erebor and Dale   
   were the most important part of that defeat.  It depends on how strong   
   Sauron would have been in southern Mirkwood during the Great Years if the   
   White Council had been content with Smaug's death.  His expulsion must have   
   been a temporary setback, at least.  We don't know if the Nazgûl reoccupying   
   Dol Guldur represented a partial or full recovery of his power in the area.   
   We also don't know if he would have returned to Mordor sometime between 2941   
   and ca. 3000 anyway, to be nearer to his most dangerous enemy (Gondor) and   
   to regain personal access to Barad-dûr and Mount Doom.   
      If Gandalf's analysis in The Quest for Erebor is accurate (a moderate if,   
   since Tolkien and not Gandalf authored the story), it seems that Sauron   
   would have preferred to remain in Dol Guldur until he was strong enough to   
   attack Lórien and Eriador, and having dealt with them and controlling (much   
   of) Eriador presumably reoccupy Mordor and attack Gondor and Rohan from both   
   sides.   
      
   Kirina.   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)