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   Gallup Finds Unemployment Climbing to Nine Percent in February   
      
      
   By Matt Cover   
      
   February 20, 2012   
      
      
   (CNSNews.com) - Unemployment in the U.S. rose to nine percent in   
   mid-February, up from 8.3 percent a month earlier, according to a new Gallup   
   survey. The polling company said this suggests that it is "premature" to   
   assume the economy will not feature prominently in the 2012 election season.   
      
   Gallup figures typically provide an indication of what the government will   
   report at the end of the month.   
      
   "The U.S. unemployment rate, as measured by Gallup without seasonal   
   adjustment, is 9.0% in mid-February," Gallup said in its mid-month   
   unemployment survey, released on February 17. "The mid-month reading   
   normally reflects what the U.S. government reports for the entire month, and   
   is up from 8.3% in mid-January."   
      
   Gallup said the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would likely report a rise   
   in the official unemployment rate in early March, when it publishes its   
   February figures.   
      
   Gallup's mid-month figures are not seasonally adjusted, and so may not   
   predict the official unemployment rate precisely. However, because Gallup   
   and BLS both conduct their unemployment surveys at the same time - in the   
   middle of the month - Gallup's early figures can provide a barometer of   
   where the official rate is likely headed.   
      
   "Gallup's mid-month unemployment reading, based on the 30 days ending Feb.   
   15, serves as a preliminary estimate of the U.S. government report, and   
   suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics will likely report on the first   
   Friday of March that its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased in   
   February," Gallup said.   
      
   The survey also found that "underemployment" - those unemployed and those   
   working part-time because full-time jobs are unavailable - rose to 19   
   percent, up from the 18.7 percent Gallup found in January.   
      
      
      
   Gallup said its report reflected a continuing trend of weakness in U.S.   
   labor markets, marking a "sharp deterioration" in job market conditions.   
      
   "Regardless of what the government reports, Gallup's unemployment and   
   underemployment measures show a sharp deterioration in job market conditions   
   since mid-January."   
      
   That decline was consistent with an economy struggling with weak growth and   
   rising energy prices, Gallup said, making it "premature" to think that the   
   economy would not be a major factor in November's presidential elections.   
      
   "Further, it suggests that it is premature to assume the condition of the   
   economy will not remain a major issue for Americans both financially and   
   politically in 2012."   
      
   Gallup's survey is a random telephone tracking survey of 30,000 adults   
   conducted through February 15, whereas BLS's survey is done over one week in   
   the middle of each month and surveys 60,000 households. BLS adjusts its   
   results for seasonal changes in the job market - regular changes in the   
   labor market that occur every year and aren't reflective of the demand for   
   labor or the supply of available jobs, such as temporary hiring around the   
   holiday shopping season.   
      
   Since Gallup's figures are not seasonally adjusted, the 0.7 percent rise in   
   unemployment tracked in its survey almost certainly includes some of the   
   seasonal factors that typically contribute to unemployment after the holiday   
   shopping season.   
      
   Nonetheless, Gallup predicted that BLS would find an increase in   
   unemployment in February.   
      
   "Although the government seasonally adjusts the U.S. unemployment rate, and   
   the workforce participation rate could decline - both of which could drive   
   down its unemployment rate - it still seems likely that the BLS will report   
   an increase in the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate for February."   
      
      
      
      
      
      
      
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